As part of the Jake Paul vs AnEsonGib event, the IBF junior lightweight title will be up for grabs when Tevin “American Idol” Farmer makes his fifth title defense against Joseph “JoJo” Diaz. The card will take place at the Meridian at Island Gardens in Miami, Florida, on January 30. The reigning champion is a -240 favorite to retain his strap, with Diaz coming back as a +190 underdog in his second attempt at winning a major world title.
Odds Analysis
Farmer has been a massive favorite in the majority of his fights and these are the tightest odds he has faced. His previous low was when he was a -250 favorite over James Tennyson in his first title defense in October 2018, a fight he won via fifth-round knockout. A similar story can be written about Joseph Diaz’s career, although this would be the second time he has been an underdog.
The first time that JoJo provided bettors plus-money odds was when he collided with Gary Russell Jr. in his first attempt at winning a major world title, the WBC featherweight belt. Diaz lost that fight by unanimous decision, the only defeat in his 31-fight professional career.
How Will This Fight Play Out?
The American Idol has an incredible ability to roll with punches and find opportunities for his hands to land. At range, he’s very difficult to hit because of his quick reflexes and the way he bends at the waist to avoid strikes. Typically, he will stand his ground and allow his opponent to close the distance and throw punches, knowing he doesn’t absorb much damage, and then he fires his crisp and accurate combinations to both the head and body. Even though he has great hand speed, there’s not a ton of power behind his punches, with just six of his 30 wins coming by knockout.
JoJo Diaz prefers to fight at range and throw his long jabs and straights looking to bait his opponents to throw so he can counter with powerful hooks. He does have fairly good power in those hands, with half of his 30 professional wins coming by knockout, including two of his last five victories. Additionally, he typically does a good job attacking the body early and often, before going to the head. Defensively, he has great footwork that allows him to stick and move after throwing his heavier strikes.
Farmer is the bigger man with a longer reach and I expect him to bully Diaz, get into a phone-booth style of fight and use his speed to score a victory.
Prediction: Tevin Farmer (-240) via decision
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tevin Farmer | -240 |
| Joseph Diaz | +190 |
Odds as of January 30 at Sportsbook
