It took almost no time at all before hordes of the uneducated masses came out of the woods and declared that Conor McGregor could (or would) knock out Floyd Mayweather. I get it.
MMA is much bigger in the public consciousness than boxing and McGregor is the poster boy for the sport. However, let’s not get mixed up here: Mayweather is going to embarrass McGregor. I love both sports but this shouldn’t even be a topic up for debate. However, it seems as though I need to explain some of the many reasons why Mayweather is going to defeat McGregor on August 26.
Mayweather Is Unhittable
Mayweather is the greatest defensive boxer to ever live. I say that without any hyperbole. In Mayweather’s past 15 fights, dating back to his victory over Arturo Gatti in 2005, he has allowed opponents to land just 18.9 percent of their punches. In that 15-fight span, “Money” has fought the likes of Oscar De La Hoya, Ricky Hatton, Shane Mosley, Canelo Alvarez and Manny Pacquiao.
This ridiculous defense helps Mayweather dictate the pace of the fight and wear down his opponent over time. This style of fighting is going to be important against McGregor, who will likely come out of the gates like hot fire. McGregor has landed 5.82 significant strikes per minute in the UFC, the seventh best in the company today, but lands at just 47.6 percent.
That leads us to the next point…
McGregor’s Cardio Is Suspect
If there has been one continued knock on McGregor in the Octagon it has been his cardio. “The Notorious One” has a style that is based on pressure and aggressiveness. McGregor has basically looked to force his opponent’s back on the cage and pick until he gets an opportunity to counter with his big left hand. This aggressiveness and power has been a double-edged sword for McGregor, as he can KO opponents quickly but tends to gas as a fight goes on.
In McGregor’s 24 professional MMA fights, he has only ever fought more than 10 minutes twice and has an average fight time of five minutes and 18 seconds. We saw him gas incredibly badly in his first fight against Nate Diaz and he suffered through peaks and valleys in the rematch as well.
On the opposite end of the spectrum is Mayweather. The 40-year-old has gone to a decision on 23 occasions, including each of his past seven bouts. Since the start of 2008, the year McGregor began his professional MMA career, Mayweather’s average fight time is 33 minutes and 36 seconds.
McGregor has gotten better at pacing himself but fighting 12 three-minute rounds against the best and barely surviving five five-minute rounds are two very different things.
It’s A Boxing Match
Let’s not get all twisted — this is a boxing match under boxing rules. If this were in MMA or a street fight, McGregor probably beats Mayweather nine out of 10 times. However, Mayweather beats McGregor 9,999 out of 10,000 in the squared circle.
This entire conversation about McGregor having a “puncher’s chance” and this and that — it doesn’t matter because this is a boxing match. I can spout stats and analysis until the cows come home but we are comparing apples and oranges here.
Mayweather is the best boxer of this generation. McGregor is one of the best MMA fighters. But imagine taking Usain Bolt and throwing him in the pool to race Michael Phelps. Or putting Steve Smith in the batters box to try to hit a pitch off Aroldis Chapman. Or putting Ezekiel Elliott on a rugby field.
Athleticism transcends sport and I respect the hell out of McGregor’s athletic accomplishments. But this is not his world. MMA is his domain. Boxing is Mayweather’s.
How To Bet Floyd Mayweather
First of all, you should likely bet Mayweather straight up. You are going to get a better line on Mayweather for his fight with McGregor than you have for his bouts with Andre Berto, Marcos Maidana (both times), Robert Guerrero and Miguel Cotto. You are simply not going to see many better lines for Mayweather due to the public’s love of McGregor.
However, if you don’t love playing that much chalk, I personally suggest Mayweather by decision. Most people tend to believe that Mayweather will, at some point, put McGregor on his ass and end the fight early. However, Mayweather isn’t a power-punching phenom. He has only registered one knockout in his past 11 fights.
Mayweather goes the distance. Mayweather demoralizes his opponents over the span of 12 rounds. Mayweather likes to put on a show.
All in all, you’re going to get good value if you pick the method of victory for Mayweather. Taking “Money” to win by decision is in the +200 range with KO coming in around -150. Both are offering fantastic value no matter which way you feel the fight goes.
Fellow OddsShark employee Joe Osborne has been riding the McGregor train for quite some time. Check out why he thinks McGregor has a chance to top Mayweather.
