Things are getting serious in the PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup playoffs. The field was cut to the top 50 in the standings for this week’s BMW Championship outside Denver, and twice in the past three years, the winner of this tournament has gone on to claim the championship itself.
That was the case for Viktor Hovland last season and Patrick Cantlay in 2021, who both won this event and then went on to win again at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta the following week. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, fresh off his fourth-place finish in the playoff opener at TPC Southlake in Memphis, Tenn., opened as the +330 odds favorite for the PGA Tour’s penultimate playoff event, which begins Thursday at Castle Pines Golf Club.
Memphis champion Hideki Matsuyama, a +3000 wager to win, was the third consecutive winner of the playoff opener from outside of the top 10 in the world rankings. But expect the cream to rise this week: since the BMW moved into its penultimate position in 2019, all five winners have come from the top 10. Hovland was fifth last season, Cantlay was fourth in 2022 and 10th in 2021, Jon Rahm was second in 2020, and Justin Thomas was 10th in 2019.
PGA Tour BMW Championship Odds
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +330 |
| Xander Schauffele | +550 |
| Rory McIlroy | +1200 |
| Colin Morikawa | +1400 |
| Viktor Hovland | +1800 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +1800 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +2000 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +2000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2500 |
| Wyndham Clark | +3000 |
| Tony Finau | +3000 |
| Sam Burns | +3000 |
| Russell Henley | +3000 |
Odds as of August 19
PGA Tour BMW Championship Betting Picks
With the season finale on the horizon, let's see if we can pick out a winner.
Scottie Scheffler To Win (+330)
We hedged on Scheffler last week, going with an each-way bet that proved fortuitous after his fourth-place finish. There’s no hedging this week. While Castle Pines is a new venue for the BMW, the place was known as a birdie haven during its days hosting The International on the PGA Tour. And into that thin air walks Scheffler, who’s finished outside of the top 10 just once in 18 starts this season (that at the U.S. Open), and has won seven of his last 13 times out.
Xander Schauffele Top 5 (+105)
Scheffler’s greatness is overshadowing the fantastic season enjoyed by Schauffele, who over his last nine starts has won two majors and owns an average finishing position of 6.4. The Californian shot a 63 in the final round at TPC Southwind to tie for second and notch his third consecutive top 10. A victory in the BMW would also vault Schauffele over Scheffler and into the position of top seed for the finale at East Lake—unlikely, we know, but this is historically when the sport’s best players begin to take control.
Billy Horschel Top 10 (+275)
Something clicked for the journeyman Horschel at the Open Championship, and he’s parlayed his T2 at Royal Troon into a very nice finishing kick that now includes three consecutive top-10 finishes. He finished T7 at the Wyndham, and then last week at Memphis used a second-round 65 to put him in position for a T10. Horschel scored three top-10s in an early season run that included a win in an alternate-field event in Puerto Rico, and this is easily the best run of form he’s shown since.
PGA Tour BMW Championship Betting Tips
The BMW Championship has moved around a lot and is being played at its fourth different golf course in as many seasons. The PGA Tour is visiting Castle Pines for the first time since 2006, which ended a 20-year run for The International (remember the wacky Modified Stableford Scoring System?) at the Colorado layout. Only one player in the BMW field participated in that final International in 2006—Jason Day, who had just turned pro.
The course has been updated for the BMW, with 10 holes redesigned, 77 bunkers rebuilt and 600 yards of length added, according to The Denver Post. But its thin air, farther ball travel, and reputation as a scorer’s paradise endures. While Scheffler and Schauffele promise to be the class of the field, players like Aaron Rai (four top-10s in his last six starts) and Nick Dunlap (a victory and a T5 in his last four) could very well make their presence felt.
Hovland, the reigning FedEx Cup champion, has been a mess much of this season thanks to swing changes, but returned to form with a T2 in Memphis and won the BMW at Olympia Fields, Ill., last season. Matsuyama endured a tough July after the U.S. Open but rebounded to win the bronze in Paris before his triumph at TPC Southwind last week. Both of those players seem very solid top 10 options, as does Cantlay, who in seven career BMW starts has only once finished worse than 15th.
Then there’s the question of Rory McIlroy, who remains one of the top choices in sportsbook odds but cratered to a T68 in Memphis—next-to-last among players who made the cut. Since his collapse in the U.S. Open, McIlroy has been wildly unpredictable; in the hunt in Scotland, missed cut at Troon, T5 at the Olympics, off the radar in Memphis. Rory backers, though, have some hope this week: in 13 previous BMW starts he’s finished top-10 seven times, including fourth last year. None of those, though, were at Castle Pines.
