Open Championship Odds & Picks: Can Favorite Scheffler Tame Tough Troon?

The last time the Open Championship visited Royal Troon, in 2016, Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson waged a Sunday duel for the ages. The Swede played otherworldly golf that day, shooting 63 to finish at 20-under and claim his first (and still only) major. Those results belied how difficult the Scottish layout played that week—just 12 guys broke par, there were 16 rounds in the 80s, and the average score was 73.15.

It all gives sports bettors an inkling of what to expect this week, when the Open Championship returns to the 7,300-yard, par-71 course—whose sixth hole now measures 623 yards, making it the longest in in the event’s 152-year history. Scottie Scheffler opened as the odds favorite for the tournament after winning six of his last 10 starts, but the world No. 1 is still looking for another major championship to add to the Masters title he won in April. Early forecasts for Scotland’s west coast call for rain and 12 to 16 mph winds—a lot like the region experienced in 2016.

It all promises to be vintage Open Championship—a long, difficult course in typical Scottish weather, which can absolutely have an impact on the leaderboard. And the Open doesn’t always go along with betting odds, as the likes of Brian Harman, Francesco Molinari, Todd Hamilton, Ben Curtis and many others will readily attest.

The Open Championship Betting Odds

Odds as of July 15

Open Championship Best Bets

Scottie Scheffler Top American (+240)

No doubt Scheffler has been the dominant player on the PGA Tour this season, but his majors in 2024 have been hit and miss: win at the Masters, an arrest-related asterisk at the PGA Championship, and a complete whiff in the U.S. Open. Scheffler has been good but not great in three previous Open Championship appearances, with a best finish of T8 at Royal St. George’s in 2021. Add the potential for weather at Troon and the somewhat wide-open nature of this championship, and it’s tough to envision Scheffler as the slam-dunk outright winner that the odds may suggest. Taking him with a nationality prop serves as a hedge, one offering more favorable odds than a top-five finish.

Rory McIlroy Top-5 Finish (+185)

McIlroy’s return to competition at the Scottish Open last week, his first tournament since his collapse in the U.S. Open, was a success—the Northern Irishman carded four rounds in the 60s to tie for fourth, and he’s now been fourth or better in five of his last seven starts. But the putting woes that doomed McIlroy at Pinehurst were evident again at Renaissance Club, where according to the PGA Tour he ranked 63rd in the field in putting. We simply don’t trust his putter right now, particularly in big moments in majors. And yet you can’t completely discount Rory in this event, given that he’s been sixth or better in six of his last eight starts in the Open Championship.

Aaron Rai Top-10 Finish (+475)

The Englishman played his way into the Open Championship field last week in Scotland, grabbing one of three available slots via his tie for fourth at Renaissance Club. The result continued what’s been a gangbusters summer for Rai, who’s now been seventh or better in three straight outings, and hasn’t finished worse than 19th since May. And unlike a lot of the grinders on the PGA Tour, Rai has shown he can navigate British links courses—not just in his Scottish Open performance, but also in a T19 at Royal St. George’s in 2021. And those odds are tough to beat on a hot player who was competitive at Pinehurst in his most recent major championship appearance.

Open Championship Betting Tips

Statistics would suggest that Cameron Young and Viktor Hovland are two players to watch this week at Troon, given their career Open Championship average finishes of 5.0 and 9.7, respectively. But Young has yet to win a PGA Tour event, and Hovland inexplicably tried to rebuild his swing after winning the Tour Championship last season. But if there’s anywhere Hovland is apt to rediscover himself, it’s at this event, where he’s never finished worse than T13 in three career appearances. Odds of +300 for top Nordic finisher, anyone?

The real wild card this week, though comes from LIV Golf. Bryson DeChambeau has been incredible in the majors this season, finishing T6 at the Masters and solo second at the PGA before winning the U.S. Open. He’s stayed hot on the LIV circuit, finishing T3 and ninth in his last two events. The Open Championship, though, looks like a weak spot—his average finish there is 58.7, and his only finish better than 51st was a T8 at St. Andrews in 2022. Troon demands length, to be sure, but missing the fairway promises to be far more penalizing this week than it was at Pinehurst.

Collin Morikawa enters the Open Championship on the heels of six straight finishes of 14th or better, and the 2021 winner is a solid top-10 option after a T4 at the Scottish last week. Same with Xander Schauffele, who’s been 15th or better in six straight, and tied for second at Carnoustie in 2018. And don’t forget about local hero Robert MacIntyre, who won at Renaissance Club last weekend to continue a very strong 2024 season, and has been top 10 in two of his previous four appearances in the Open Championship.

Is there a chance for another Harman, who opened as a +15000 bet to win last year at Royal Liverpool? Anything’s possible in Scotland, if the conditions are right. Akshay Bhatia, T2 and T5 in his past two PGA Tour starts, is +10000 to win at Troon. Victor Perez, who finished third at the Canadian Open and was T10 last week in Scotland, can be had at +17000. And if you’re really feeling bold, there’s Tiger Woods to win at +20000—though a more realistic option may be on Woods to make the cut, which he hasn’t done in the Open Championship since 2018.

Who Are The Last 10 Open Winners?

How To Read British Open Championship Odds

Looking at odds can be complicated if you’re new to golf betting, so don’t worry if it’s a little overwhelming at first. To learn more about the various ways to wager on golf, check out our How to Bet on Golf page.

If bookmakers have Rory McIlroy as the +1000 favorite at Open Championship odds, that means a $100 bet on him to win the tournament would pay out $1,100 – your bet amount of $100 plus winnings of $1,000.

It’s incredibly tough to win a PGA major, so there is risk involved in pre-tournament winner bets given the significant amount of competition in the field. But McIlroy’s world-class talent and past performance in majors make him a lucrative option despite the shorter odds.

On the other side of the course, Sergio Garcia would be considered a long shot to emerge triumphant at the Open. According to the latest British Open odds, Sergio has +10000 odds to go all the way. A $100 bet on him to win outright would pay out $10,100 – your $100 is returned coupled with your winnings of $10,000.