Charles Schwab Challenge Odds: Scottie Scheffler The Clear Favorite at Colonial

Scottie Scheffler is coming off an adventurous week that included the end of his PGA Tour winning streak as well as a bizarre arrest that landed him in a Louisville jail for a few hours. But rather than take some time off after an emotionally wrenching PGA Championship, the world No. 1 is back at it again in his adopted home state—even though the tournament isn’t one of those “Signature” events that demands his participation.

No surprise, then, that Scheffler is the overwhelming odds favorite in the Charles Schwab Challenge in Fort Worth, Texas, where Emiliano Grillo won last season. The field includes five of the top 20 players in the Official World Golf Rankings, headlined by Scheffler, Collin Morikawa and Max Homa. Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim and Tony Finau are among the other notables scheduled to tee it up at historic Colonial Country Club, which over the past year underwent a $25 million restoration to return it to its 1930s grandeur.

The big story, though, is the presence of Scheffler, who entered the PGA on the heels of four victories in his past five starts. While he didn’t win at Valhalla, the resulting T8 finish still marked his ninth consecutive result inside the top 10. Oh, and Scheffler’s finishes in his past two appearances at Colonial? Solo second, and a tie for third.

Charles Schwab Challenge Odds

Odds as of May 21

Charles Schwab Challenge Best Bets

Collin Morikawa to Win (+1050)

Morikawa simply couldn’t get birdie putts to fall in the final round at Valhalla, and the result was a T4 despite playing in the final group of the day.

The PGA Championship continued a strong spring run for the American that hasn’t quite been strong enough to win—also evident in his solo ninth at the RBC Heritage and his T3 at the Masters. And yet, top-four finishes in each of the season’s first two majors clearly says something about the state of Morikawa’s game. He’s had three chances to win since Augusta, and shot in the 70s in the final round each time. That dam will break eventually, perhaps in an event where he was runner-up in 2020.

Scottie Scheffler Each Way 1-5 (+245)

While Scheffler’s initial court hearing in Louisville was postponed from Tuesday to early June, the guy has still been through an awful lot over the past week. Is it smart to expect him to show up in Fort Worth and be the Peak Scottie we’ve seen so often in 2024? Maybe. Scheffler can clearly block everything out on the golf course, and he showed with his sparking 67 at Valhalla just hours after his arrest. But he’s also human, which is why we’re hedging with an each-way wager—which would pay the full odds if Scheffler wins, and one-quarter of the odds should he finish in the top five. In either case, the value is better than the negative moneyline you’d get on a Scheffler top five by itself.

Thomas Detry Top 10 Finish (+500)

The Belgian is an old-school short-game connoisseur with ridiculous touch around the greens, evident in his bookend 66s that resulted in a T4 last week at the PGA Championship. That finish at Valhalla continued what’s been a very strong 2024 season for Detry, who also finished T4 at the Signature event at Pebble Beach, T17 at Innisbrook, T2 at the Houston Open, and T8 with Robert MacIntyre in the team event in New Orleans. Detry was T21 in his Colonial debut last season, but expect that short game to really shine with the renovated course playing more like its 1936 self.

Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Tips

Grillo won the Charles Schwab last season by beating Adam Schenk in a playoff that Scheffler missed by a shot. Much like this year’s tournament, that field featured a sprinkling of A-listers amid a sea of long-odds grinders, and Scheffer was the lone big name in a final top five that also included Harry Hall and Paul Haley II.

So clearly, there’s an opening for an underdog in Fort Worth given that the Schwab isn’t on the list of the PGA Tour’s Signature events. That would certainly fit the mold of what we’ve seen this season, given that the Zurich Classic—the team event in New Orleans won by Rory McIlroy and partner Shane Lowry—is the only non-Signature event this season to boast a major champion as winner. Other winners of non-Signature events on the PGA Tour this year have included Grayson Murray, Nick Dunlap, Matthieu Pavon, Nick Taylor, Jake Knapp, Austin Eckroat, Peter Malnati, Stephan Jaeger, Akshay Bhatia and Taylor Pendrith.

Scheffler played in three of those events, finishing T17, T3 and T2, respectively. So even though we have Morikawa and Scheffler at the top of our picks this week, very recent history would indicate that a lesser name is very capable of hoisting the trophy on Sunday afternoon. Detry of course is a primary contender to be that guy, given how consistently well he’s played this season. But he’s hardly the only one.

Harris English, T12 at Colonial last season, is the consummate lurker who was T18 at the PGA last week and also finished solo seventh at the Genesis. Billy Horschel has shown flashes with a T8 at Valhalla and a victory in the alternate-field event in Puerto Rico. Chris Kirk won the season-opening Signature event at Kapalua, finished T10 in another at Hilton Head, and was T10 at the Masters. Eckroat won earlier this season at PGA National, and has been top 20 in three of his last four starts. Scheffler may dominate the headlines, but sports bettors should have lots of options this week beyond the world No. 1.