Let's gun for another MLB expert picks sweep, starting with a play on the Padres runline as they out-pitch the Nationals, and then a bet on the UNDER 8.5 runs in the Orioles vs Marlins game.
Here are my two MLB picks for July 25th:
MLB Expert Pick Today: Padres -1.5 (-115) vs Nationals
San Diego vs Washington Odds - Game Time: 12:05 pm ET
This bet begins with Dylan Cease on the mound, a gentleman who has gathered himself and turned in a 1.15 ERA in his last three starts. His talents wavered for an 8.05 ERA over four mid-season starts, but now he's back and ready to carve a weak Nationals lineup that is 4-for-23 lifetime (.174 BA) against him.
I like the OVER on Cease's 6.5 strikeout total (-150) in this matchup, and I'll fade Patrick Corbin with a bet on his UNDER 3.5 strikeouts (+110). Like most teams, the Padres hit Corbin hard, batting .301 with a .785 OPS in 98 plate appearances.
We've got to go runline for this bet, too, as I dislike the -185 odds on the Padres ML. You can string the ML bet into a parlay, but as far as our expert picks go, I'm recommending runline because Cease will keep the Nats from scoring and open that multi-run gap for a SDP win.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Orioles vs Marlins UNDER 8.5 Runs (-115)
Baltimore vs Miami Odds - Game Time: 12:10 pm ET
I'm betting a sneaky UNDER here, so don't hate on me. Allow me to explain my methods.
Corbin Burnes is a superstar, so we're not concerned about him ruining our UNDER bet. While the right-hander has allowed more than three runs in a game just once this season, he's not an automatic UNDER play. Baltimore's offense usually gives Burnes a hell of a boost, but lately, that crew has faltered. And that's why I'm playing the UNDER Thursday.
Marlins starter Roddery Munoz can strike guys out (7.6 K/9), but he's horrendous when it comes to hard contact. His 2.4 HR/9 represents an insane propensity for untimely hard contact, yet the O's are very weak right now. Over the last two weeks, Gunnar Henderson (.599 OPS), Jordan Westburg (.502), Adley Rutschman (.466), and Ryan Mountcastle (.448) have all struggled with elevated strikeout rates.
The O's (-220 ML) may still win, but I'd rather snipe the UNDER in this situation for improved value.
