Our MLB expert picks are back to wrap up the week. Our best bets start with a fade of the Toronto Blue Jays vs. the Texas Rangers, and an UNDER play in the Seattle Mariners-Chicago White Sox game.
Here are my two MLB picks for July 26th:
MLB Expert Pick Today: Rangers (+110) vs Blue Jays
Texas vs Toronto Odds - Game Time: 7:07 pm ET
The Blue Jays have given up. Toronto sends Yusei Kikuchi, the club's biggest trade chip, to the mound Friday hoping things will be different. They won't be. The Blue Jays are 6-15 SU when Kikuchi starts, performing worse lately with a 1-6 SU record in the lefty's last seven starts. During that seven-game span, Kikuchi owns a 7.49 ERA, and opponents own a .390 BAbip, meaning they're basically Ted Williams when they put the ball in play.
While the Rangers aren't the World Series powerhouse they were a season ago, the club can still hit the ball hard, especially against Kikuchi. For example, Adolis Garcia is 1-for-4 lifetime vs. Kikuchi with a homer. Nate Lowe is 3-for-5 with a home run. I'm very keen on a prop bet for Lowe to go OVER 0.5 total bases (-160), a bet he's hit in 65% of games this season.
And if Kikuchi doesn't fumble it, the Jays bullpen will. That group allowed 10 runs to the Rays Thursday in humiliating fashion.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Mariners vs White Sox UNDER 7.0 Runs (+100)
Seattle vs Chicago Odds - Game Time: 8:10 pm ET
This is a great pitching matchup between George Kirby, who we all know well, and unknown Sox righty Drew Thorpe. He's been quietly effective for Chicago, pitching to a 3.03 ERA in the first seven starts of his MLB career. Even better, the 23-year-old is a gold mine for UNDER bets.
Using our pitcher logs, we can see the total has gone UNDER in six of Thorpe's seven starts. The Mariners-Sox total Friday is at a lower 7.0, but that's still super attainable, and it's a smart bet at even money. Thorpe is an UNDER king, as is his counterpart Kirby.
The UNDER is 10-8-3 in games started by Kirby, which bodes well. He's been more locked in lately, helping the total to go UNDER 7.0 in four of his last six contests. Given the sad state of both the M's (.660 OPS, 28th) and White Sox (.620 OPS, 30th) offenses, the UNDER is the best play of the day.
