Former U.S. President Donald Trump has now been indicted four times. The most recent indictment comes out of Georgia where Trump and 18 of his pals were charged with a conspiracy to subvert the 2020 election.
You'll remember that there are tapes of Trump asking a Georgian election official to find him 11,000 so he could carry the crucial state and win in 2020.
And now he's going to face the music for that. Maybe.
Donald Trump Arrest Odds
When I first published this piece, we didn’t know whether or not Trump would turn himself in. The line was +300 for “yes.” So good job to all of you who believed the former Republican President would hand himself over peacefully to the authorities
At the time of the original post, we also didn’t know if he was going to be charged or not. The books favored a “yes” answer there with -175 odds. Again, congrats to those of you who put your money down on that.
Donald Trump Arrest Odds: Jail Time?
| Convicted and Serve Jail Time Before... | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +300 | -500 |
| 2026 | +250 | -400 |
The big question is if Trump will serve any jail time for these alleged offenses. Most of the charges he faces carry a jail term of five to 20 years.
The odds seem to indicate that the outcome of all these legal troubles will keep Trump out of jail. At +250, the implied odds of "The Donald" sitting behind bars is ~29%.
Legal experts believe the DOJ will look to get a real sentence for Trump. As much as I believe Trump is guilty the precedent of a former President sitting in jail is something we can't overlook.
Donald Trump Arrest Odds: Possible Plea Deal?
Again, the DOJ might be looking for a "real sentence" but we can't dismiss the possibility that Trump enters into a plea deal to spare him from sitting behind bars.
| Cut A Plea Deal Before 2025 | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | +160 |
| No | -225 |
Again, "no" is favored here but the margin is much closer here. Trump doesn't want to sit behind bars and the DOJ (or states) don't want to have to deal with the real possibility of a full-blown riot if he is jailed.
A plea deal would allow Trump to face some sort of consequence and for Trump to avoid giving having to actually sit behind bars. To me, this is the likeliest outcome because it's kind of a win-win for both sides.
Donald Trump Arrest Odds: Who Accompanies Him?
| To Accompany Trump | Odds |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump Jr. | -250 |
| Eric Trump | -150 |
| Ivanka Trump | +150 |
| Melania Trump | +300 |
| Kanye West | +2000 |
Applies to CNN video footage coverage of Donald Trump’s April 2023 arraignment in New York.
You’d think Melania Trump would be the easy answer here, but it seems as if Trump’s wife skipped the trip from Florida to New York. While she still supports her husband, she won’t be there to see him arraigned.
The best bet is for Eric Trump to be by his side. Trump’s third child from his first marriage was on the plane with his father as it left Florida for New York. At -150, you’ll get $67 of profit on a winning $100 bet for Eric to be there at the arraignment.
Donald Trump Arrest Specials
| Specials | Odds |
|---|---|
| Department Of Justice To Indict Donald Trump In 2023 In Relation To January 6 Events | -150 |
| Department Of Justice To Indict Donald Trump In 2023 In Relation To Classified Material | -250 |
| Donald Trump To Be Convicted Of A Felony And Serve Time In Prison Before 2025 | +500 |
| Stormy Daniels To Be The Cover Star For Vogue In 2023 | +1600 |
| Donald Trump’s Mugshot To Be Used On Trumpstore.Com Merchandise For Sale In 2023 | -105 |
| ‘Donald’ To Make The Top 100 Baby Names For 2023 According To Ssa.Gov | +1000 |
Applies to April 2023 New York felony arrest and to video footage coverage on CNN.
