The race for the 2024 Republican Nomination will truly begin with the first debate. We've got you set with everything you need to know about the first big debate for the Republican Party as they try to decide who will represent the party in the race for the 2024 US Presidential elections.
As it stands now, Donald Trump is still the favorite to win the Republican Nomination. I guess when you're the front-runner you can afford to skip a debate or two. Trump plans on skipping the first debate, you'll find more about who's going to be at the debate and what Trump will be doing instead a bit further down in this piece.
When Is The First Republican Debate?
The first face-to-face meeting between the top Republican candidates is set to take place on Wednesday, August 23.
It feels like the campaign has been going on for a long while already, but it's just getting started. This is step one in a lead-up that will take us all the way through the Republican primaries season from January 15 to March 12.
Where Is The First Republican Debate?
Milwaukee's Fiserv Forum, home of the Milwaukee Bucks, will play host to the first Republican Debate for the 2024 nomination.
Who Will Be At The First Republican Debate?
To get on the stage, candidates had to meet a few specific requirements. They had to (1) get donations from at least 40,000 people, (2) poll at at least 1% on some key polls and (3) sign a loyalty pledge to support whoever eventually wins the nomination.
Here is the list of candidates who met the requirements and will participate in Milwaukee:
- Ron DeSantis
- Vivek Ramaswamy
- Tim Scott
- Nikki Haley
- Doug Burgum
- Chris Christie
- Mike Pence
Why Is Donald Trump Not At The First Republican Debate?
Donald Trump certainly meets two of the three requirements. But he didn't sign the loyalty pledge. Which is very much on brand for Trump. He's also got this feud going with Fox (who's televising the debate).
Not to mention he doesn't really need to be at the debate because he's the front-runner and all. Skipping the debate also makes political sense. He doesn't have to get grilled over his legal troubles and it forces his opponents to fight amongst themselves.
Instead of participating in the debate in Milwaukee, Trump will be conducting a prerecorded one-on-one interview with Tucker Carlson. Where that interview will be aired is anyone's guess.
First Republican Debate Odds and Markets
Speaking of Trump and his interview, that takes us to the various markets and odds open for the debate. Starting us off is what will be Trump's first cliché be during his interview with Carlson (assuming it sees the light of day).
First Trump Cliché With Tucker Carlson
| Cliché | Odds |
|---|---|
| Bogus Indictments | +600 |
| Crooked Joe Biden | +800 |
| Perfect Phone Call | +800 |
| Radical Left Communists | +1000 |
| Make America Great Again | +1200 |
| Most Corrupt In History | +1200 |
| Fake News Media | +1500 |
I'm going with the chalk here. You know he'll have a lot to say about the indictment because, well, that's all anyone can talk about. But "Fake News Media" is very interesting at +1500. You know that's something Trump will say at some point and it might very well be the first thing out of his mouth.
Most Talking Time For All Candidates
| Most Talking Time | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ron DeSantis | +150 |
| Mike Pence | +275 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | +450 |
| Chris Christie | +700 |
| Nikki Haley | +700 |
| Tim Scott | +700 |
It's got to be DeSantis, no? The Florida Governor has fallen off dramatically in the polls. He's going to need this debate to put him back on the map. The playbook for DeSantis is to try and take command of the stage, and that means he'll talk...a lot.
Not to mention every other candidate is going to look to pile on his misery and make a name for themselves. He'll have to defend a lot too.
First Mention of "Stolen Election"
| Mention Stolen Election | Odds |
|---|---|
| Under 1 minute | +1000 |
| 1:00 to 15:00 | +1000 |
| 15:01 to 30:00 | +1000 |
| 30:01 to 45:00 | +800 |
| 45:01 to 60:00 | +800 |
| 60:01 to 75:00 | +800 |
| No Mention Of Stolen Election | +100 |
With the indictment placed on Trump some of these candidates are going to want to distance themselves from the front-runner and the center of his legal troubles.
But look a strong number of Republican voters still believe the 2020 election was stolen even though there is no evidence that happened. A recent CNN poll stated that 69% of Republicans and Republican-leaning people believe the election was stolen. This is going to get mentioned by one of the candidates (the moderator or presenter doesn't count in this market).
When is the critical question? It's a two-hour debate so I'm venturing it's going to happen right after the hour mark between 60 minutes and 75 minutes. Candidates will start to get tired and might have to ad-lib a bit. That's when things might slip out.
