The two best teams at the Copa América battle it out in an Argentina vs Colombia Copa América Final. Argentina is looking to get a record 16th Copa title with a win.
For Colombia, this will be their third finals appearance. Los Cafeteros's last trip to the Final was in 2001 when they won their lone championship. Naturally, Colombia is the dog here at +340 on the three-way moneyline.
Argentina vs Colombia Copa América Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | +117 | O2 (+110) | -0.5 (+117) |
| Colombia | +340 | U2 (-121) | +0.5 (-130) |
| Draw | +193 |
Odds as of July 12
Michel's Pick: Colombia To Win Final +145
I'm riding with Colombia here. I like how they've powered through a much more difficult run to the final than Argentina. Colombia faced 4th-ranked Brazil and 14th-ranked Uruguay while Argentina's toughest opponent was 30th-ranked Ecuador.
Sure, Colombia drew 1-1 with Brazil but they should have won with a +1.1 xG on the day. You can't say the same for Argentina who held a -0.9 xG in their 1-1 draw against Ecuador.
This "tougher path" narrative I've cooked up goes beyond the Copa. Los Cafeteros are playing (and beating) much tougher opponents than Argentina at this tournament and in the set of friendlies leading up to the 2024 Copa:
| Argentina | Colombia |
|---|---|
| El Salvador (80) 3-0 W | Spain (8) 1-0 W |
| Costa Rica (52) 3-1 W | Romania (47) 3-2 W |
| Ecuador (30) 1-0 W | USA (11) 5-1 W |
| Guatemala (106) 4-1 W | Bolivia (84) 3-0 W |
The number in parenthesis is the nation's FIFA ranking
I get that Argentina is the defending Copa champs (and has gone to six of the last eight Copa Finals) and that they're the defending World Cup champs but La Albiceleste is showing the wear-and-tear of those deep runs.
I'm not 100% confident Colombia wins in full-time so I've backed them to win at some point with a "To Win Final" bet at +145.
Nick's Pick: Both Teams to Score (Yes) +133
Colombia is far and away the more battle tested squad entering this final, having faced Uruguay in the semifinal and Brazil in the group stage.
James Rodriguez has risen to the occasion once again at the Copa America with one goal and two assists already. Any set piece within striking distance will be a clear goal scoring opportunity with Rodriguez' left boot proving prolific at this tournament.
At the same time, Messi's quality and the likes of Julian Alvarez, Lautaro Martinez and the retiring Angel Di Maria will be tough to keep off the scoresheet.
I like both teams to score at +133 in what should be a rousing Copa America final.
