EPL Expert Picks Matchweek 6: OVER 2.5 Goals In Arsenal vs United

Liverpool has covered a -1.5 spread seven times in nine games (78%) across all competitions, including a 2-0 win over Bologna in the Champions League.

Palace has been dreadful this year with an 0-3-3 record in the league. Even losing to Everton in Matchweek 6. I have no doubt a much better Liverpool side can win by at least two goals at Selhurst Park.

Much like Crystal Palace, I’ve been waiting for West Ham to have that performance that can potentially kickstart their season. Problem is, it just hasn’t happened yet.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Yet here I am, once again, betting on the “bigger club” to find some sort of response to a terrible start to the season and bag win.

West Ham needs this. They just do. It will be a disaster if they drop points yet again here against a promoted side.

Both teams to score (Yes) have hit in six of eight games (75%) across all competitions for both Brentford and Wolves this season.

Both are woeful defensively with the worst GA (Wolves) and fifth-worst GA (Brentford). And both are scoring at least a goal per game through the seasons. So, they've got the right combination of poor defense and good enough offense for this bet to hit...again.
 

Here we are, heading into Matchday 7, and Southampton is STILL the most underachieving side in the Premier League in terms of expected goals.

The Saints have managed just three goals this season, but have posted an xG of 8.77. That difference of 5.77 is the largest gulf so far.

And do you just happen to know who has been OUT performing their expected goals against? Why, the “mighty” Arsenal, that’s who.

Five goals conceded, but an xGA of 7.60 so far for the Gunners, which puts them seventh in the Premier League.

Arsenal should clearly win this game, but I’ll bank on the Saints finding a goal here.

Solid value here for both teams to score.

Fulham has been excellent to start the season as they enter Matchday 7 sixth in the table.

BTTS has cashed in back-to-back fixtures in the Premier League and three-in-a-row when you count the FA Cup meeting in 2022.

City is plagued with injuries and will find life tricky without Rodri doing what he does in the middle of the pitch. 

I like both teams to score here and a potential upset in the mix on Saturday.

Leicester has seen the total go OVER 2.5 goals five times in eight games (63%). Bournemouth has seen it hit four times in their last five games (80%). So we're trending in the right direction for this matchup.

The Foxes scored twice as many goals as they created with 8 goals on 4.3xG but they've also allowed the third most goals with 12. Goals fly in when the Foxes play. 

Not to mention I've been on a heater when it comes to total bets going 6-1 over the last three weeks.

Here we find two of the WORST Premier League teams in terms of expected goals against so far.

Everton has allowed the fifth-most expected goals against at 12.98 (15 goals conceded) while Newcastle is right behind them at 12.07 xG, but have only conceded seven times.

Love betting flat totals with the push in play and I think there could be goals in this one. All but ONE Everton game has seen at least three goals and I expect that to continue this week.