The 2024 Euro semifinals are here. Our first clash of the final four is a meeting of continental giants in Spain vs. France. For this pivotal matchup, I have three Spain vs France prop picks for you to consider. The first is a play on Kylian Mbappe to find the back of the net, while the second is a card prop on the man defending Mbappe, Nacho Fernandez. Lastly, I'm banking on high-scoring chances and taking the OVER in corners as my third Spain vs France prop.
Spain vs France Prop Picks: Mbappe Anytime Goal +218
| Players | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe | +218 |
| Alvaro Morata | +250 |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | +300 |
| Ayoze Perez | +300 |
| Ferran Torres | +300 |
| Mato Joselu | +300 |
| Olivier Giroud | +333 |
Odds as of July 9
For this semifinal, Spain is without a number of key players through injury or suspension.
- Pedri was injured in the quarterfinals against Germany. The 21-year-old Barcelona midfielder was arguably Spain's third-best player with a 1.9 non-penalty xG and xAG and also had the second-most key passes at 10.
- Dani Carvajal is suspended for this game. The right-back has been instrumental in shutting down attacks on the Spanish right with 11 tackles and interceptions (third most for Spain) not to mention his five blocks (second most).
- Center-back Robin Le Normand will also be out due to suspension. He’s made eight tackles and interceptions, eleven clearances, and won a remarkable 63% of his challenges.
All three play on Spain’s right side meaning Luis de la Fuente has to turn to his B-squad to shut down the game's best player; Kylian Mbappé.
Even A-squad's have a hard time holding Mbappé's creativity down. The superstar has the most xG for the French and the third-most in the tournament at 2.7. Now he'll face Spain's reserves?! At +218 for a Mbappé anytime goal, the value is way too good to pass up.
Spain vs France Prop Picks: Card Props
| Players | Odds |
|---|---|
| Nacho Fernandez | +190 |
| Eduardo Camavinga | +190 |
| Alex Beena | +240 |
| Mikel Merino | +240 |
| Marc Cucurella | +240 |
| Martin Zubimendi | +260 |
| Rodri Hernandez | +260 |
Odds as of July 9
Speaking of Mbappé, Nacho Fernandez, who is expected to fill Dani Carvajal's role on Spain's right, will have the job of stopping France's star. A job that will require a bit of the dark arts on his part. While Nacho isn't a card-generating machine, he has seen yellow 0.33 times per 90 in his last three seasons.
Jesus Navas (+500 to get a card) may also start on Spain's right flank to counter the threat of Kylian Mbappé. He might have his coach's trust, but at 38 he's a bit long in the tooth to be taking on a 25-year-old superstar who can reach speeds of 38 km/h. A professional foul seems...in the cards for Navas.
Spain vs France Prop Picks: Corner Props
| OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|
| 8.5 Corners (-103) | 8.5 Corners (-118) |
Odds as of July 9
I like the OVER here. I know that this is a close matchup with sides that are equally matched but consider the trends here.
France has taken 28 corners in 5.3 games, an average of 5.3 corners per game. Make that same calculation for Spain and you come out to 5.7 corners per game. Sum that all up and you get a total of 11 corners.
Just in case you're still worried about how close this matchup is and how it might lack corners remember that we've seen an average of 9.3 corners in the knockout stage between "closely matched opponents" like France vs. Belgium, Spain vs. Germany and Portugal vs. France.
