Ready for another weekend of MLS soccer? Good because I am and I've got you covered with three expert picks on Matchday 23. My record this year isn't great at 8-17 (32%) and -6.85 units. But here's to turning that record around!
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MLS Expert Picks: Matchday 23
New England vs Columbus
The Game: New England Revolution vs Columbus Crew, Saturday, June 29, 7:30 PM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| NE Revolution | +210 | O2.5 (-195) |
| Columbus Crew | +105 | U2.5 (+150) |
| Draw | +275 |
Pick: New England ML (+210)
With four wins on the bounce, the New England Revolution is one of the hottest teams in the MLS. They took care of Nashville, Cincinnati, the NY Red Bulls and Vancouver in those four games. Three of those sides currently sit in the top eight for MLS Cup Odds.
They're beating some of the top sides like Columbus. And the Crew just lost one of their strongest players Aidan Morris after he was sold to English Championship side Middlesbrough. Morris has the sixth-highest xG+xAG on the team at 2.7 this season. And now he's gone.
It's never too late to back a streak so I'm jumping on the New England bandwagon this weekend as they take on a weaker Columbus side!
Nashville vs Miami
The Game: Nashville SC vs Inter Miami, Saturday, June 29, 8:30 PM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | -110 | O2.5 (-160) |
| Inter Miami | +260 | U2.5 (+125) |
| Draw | +265 |
Pick: Inter Miami ML (+260)
I'm taking a similar approach with my second bet by backing the dog. I know, it's risky at +260, but I think we can catch sportsbooks napping on the Herons. These odds are so long because Inter doesn't have Messi or Suarez. But they've been fine without them winning back-to-back games against Philadephia and Columbus.
Sure, Nashville has seen a turn in form under a tactical switch to a 4-2-3-1 system losing only once in their last six games. But when you look at the expected goal differential (xGD) in those six games, Nashville probably should have more L's.
In those last six games, Nashville has been out-chanced 7.4 to 8.3 on the xG. The only game where Nashville had a positive xGD was against New England and they lost 2-1!
Miami is the class of the East even without Messi and Suarez. I expect yet another win after a nice 10-day break to freshen up.
LAFC vs Colorado
The Game: LAFC vs Colorado Rapids, Saturday, June 29, 10:30 PM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| LAFC | -215 | O3.5 (+120) |
| Columbus Crew | +450 | U3.5 (-155) |
| Draw | +360 |
Pick: O3.5 (+120)
We'll have plenty of goals in this game. In their last seven matches, Colorado has seen the total go OVER 3.5 goals five times (71%). For LA it's hitting much less, with the total only going over 3.5 goals twice in seven games.
But when it comes to LA, specifically at home they carve out a ton of chances. At home, the Falcons have created 24.6 expected goals. More than anyone else, and by a good margin. They're also making good on those chances with 26 goals. They score what they create and then some.
In Colorado's last five road games, they've allowed an average of 1.98 xG and an average of two goals against. What they give up they concede. And they give up a ton of chances! That plays right into LAFC's high-flying offense.
