Both of my moneyline MLS expert picks I made on Matchday 26 failed. That leaves my seasonal record at a dismal 10-21 (32%) with a sad -7.63 units. The one bet from last week's picks that did hit was a neutral totals bet. So I'm going to lean a bit more on those neutral bets for Matchday 27.
MLS Expert Picks: Matchday 27
For my Matchday 27 MLS expert picks I'm looking at TFC's date against Inter Miami, then it's NYCFC's match against a stumbling Atlanta before ending on Vancouver vs Kansas.
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Inter Miami vs Toronto FC Pick
Inter Miami vs Toronto FC Kick-Off - Wednesday, July 18, 7:30 PM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami | -135 | O2.5 (-170) | -0.5 (-140) |
| Toronto FC | +329 | U2.5 (+142) | +0.5 (+100) |
| Draw | +307 |
Odds as of July 16
Pick: OVER 2.5 Goals (-170)
This bet has hit a lot recently; for both teams. For Inter, we've seen OVER 2.5 goals in their last eight games. Remember, Miami didn't have Messi (or Suarez) for their last five games so missing Messi with that ankle injury won't be a problem for this bet.
When it comes to TFC, they've also seen this bet hit in their last eight straight games. When at home Toronto is the third-highest-scoring team in the East with 23 goals (only Miami and NYCFC are better). There are plenty of goals to be found in this game.
Atlanta United vs NYCFC Pick
Atlanta United vs NYCFC Kick-Off - Wednesday, July 17, 7:30 PM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United | +134 | O2.5 (-152) | -0.5 (+120) |
| NYCFC | +188 | U2.5 (+127) | +0.5 (-170) |
| Draw | +262 |
Odds as of July 16
Pick: Atlanta ML (+134)
Atlanta might be on a three-game skid, but they return home to welcome a traveling NYCFC side that isn't very good on the road. The Pigeons are 1-1-3 in their last five road games.
I know that the 5-Stripes have recently lost Thiago Almada (sold to Botafogo), Giorgos Giakoumakis (sold to Cruz Azul) and Caleb Willey (Olympic duty). But the trio of Lobzhanidze, Lennon and Rios can more than hold their own in the goal creation department. The three have a combined 10 goals and eight assists on the year.
PS: I'm going to be putting half a unit on a draw before 30 minutes at -140. No team has more draws through the first 30 minutes than Atlanta's 17.
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Vancouver Whitecaps vs Sporting Kansas City Pick
Vancouver Whitecaps vs Sporting Kansas Kick-Off - Wednesday, July 17, 10:30 PM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Whitecaps | -138 | O2.5 (-162) | -0.5 (-150) |
| Sporting Kansas City | +336 | U2.5 (+133) | +0.5 (+105) |
| Draw | +307 |
Odds as of July 16
Pick: OVER 2.5 Goals (-162)
Much like Inter vs TFC, I feel we're going to see at least three goals in this game. Kansas has seen the total exceed 2.5 goals 12 times in their last 13 games (92%) while Vancouver has seen it hit six times in their last eight games (75%).
Both sides are hitting the OVER for opposite and convenient reasons. Vancouver is scoring 63% of the goals in that eight-game sample I mentioned while Kansas is allowing 61% of the goals in that 13-game sample.
The Whitecaps could probably hit the OVER all on their own. For the sake of my official pick, I'm sticking to the game lines and taking the match total of O2.5 goals but you can get O1.5 goals for Vancouver at -152.
