We've got three expert picks for MLS Matchweek 3 ready for you. Make sure to tail these moneyline or totals picks for this weekend's set of games in North American soccer.
The number of games played is starting to build and with that, we're starting to learn more about these teams.
MLS Expert Picks Matchweek 3
NYCFC vs Toronto FC
The Game: NYCFC vs Toronto FC, Saturday, March 16, 7:30 PM
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| NYCFC | -150 | O2.5 (+100) |
| Toronto FC | +380 | U2.5 (-120) |
| Draw | +275 |
Pick: Toronto FC (+380)
Those are some looong odds for a team that's (1) not yet conceded, (2) sits joint-top of the league with seven points and (3) playing a team that hasn't won. I get Toronto was garbage last year, but that was last year. This is a new year with a new manager. And they're winning. Why the hate?
Again, TFC haven't conceded yet this year and they travel to face a team that's only scored once in this short season. That's enough to sway me toward a massive +380 payout.
(Although my boss did warn me not to trust TFC. We'll see who gets the bragging rights on Monday.)
LA Galaxy vs St. Louis City
The Game: LA Galaxy vs St. Louis, Saturday, March 16, 10:30 PM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| LA Galaxy | -130 | O3.5 (+130) |
| St. Louis City | +285 | U3.5 (-160) |
| Draw | +235 |
Pick: U3.5 (-160)
In LA's three games this year, we've seen a combined 10 goals. An average of 3.3 per game. Just under our 3.5 line. But look, we've only seen a combined 9.1 xG in those three games. Meaning there should have been fewer goals than were actually scored.
From St. Louis's side, we've seen an average of 2.6 goals and 2.23 xG. Both numbers are well below our line. So I'm going with the UNDER in this game.
New England vs Cincinnati
The Game: New England Revolution vs FC Cincinnati, Sunday, March 17, 2 PM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| New England | +120 | O2.5 (-140) |
| Cincinnati | +185 | U2.5 (+115) |
| Draw | +260 |
Pick: Draw (+260)
I've taken a draw here because I don't believe in Cincinnati's offense. They're underperforming with two goals on 3.5 xG. Sure, they're coming up against a really poo New England squad who've conceded eight times this year.
But they've been better and are growing into the season, as coach Caleb Porter stated in an interview with Boston radio station 98.5.
Cinci is too good to lose this one, but with their lack of scoring touch and with the Revolution's likely attention to detail and defense I doubt either side finds an edge in this game and they battle it out to a draw.
