Ready for another weekend of MLS soccer? I am and I've got you covered with three expert picks for three different matches on Matchday 16.
My record this year isn't great at 7-11 and -3.55 units. But it's improving. Over the last two weeks, I've gone 4-2 and +0.79 units of profit. Here's to another week when I move in a positive direction.
MLS Expert Picks: Matchday 16
Montreal vs Nashville
The Game: CF Montreal vs Nashville SC, Saturday, 7:30 PM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal | +145 | O2.5 (-110) |
| Nashville SC | +165 | U2.5 (-110) |
| Draw | +240 |
Pick: Nashville SC ML (+165)
Nashville already took down Montreal 4-1 earlier this month. It was the Music's first win since March! And now they've got a new coach who's already made a positive change that yielded a 1-1 draw against Atlanta.
Montreal is bad on their home field with a 1-1-2 record. They're also on a horrific run of form with four straight losses. Perfect chance for Nashville to get another W under their belt and for the new Gaffer to prove his quality.
DC vs Chicago
The Game: DC United vs Chicago Fire, Saturday, 7:30 PM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| DC United | -170 | O2.5 (-195) |
| Chicago Fire | +380 | U2.5 (+155) |
| Draw | +330 |
Pick: OVER 2.5 Goals (-195)
At -195 there isn't a ton of value here, but I'm looking for wins and to compound some marginal value to push my record over 50% and those profits into positive territory. Taking O2.5 goals at -195 should help here.
DC is creating the most xG in the East at 25.8 while Chicago is allowing the third-most xGA. We will see a ton of opportunities for DC in this game.
We've already seen OVER 2.5 goals in nine of DC's 14 games (64%) this season. Chicago has the same record at 9 in 14. Both of these teams hit OVER 2.5 goals a lot, it's gonna happen again this weekend.
San Jose vs Austin
The Game: San Jose Earthquake vs Austin FC, Saturday, 10:30 PM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquake | -125 | O2.5 (-170) |
| Austin FC | +275 | U2.5 (+135) |
| Draw | +290 |
Pick: Austin FC ML (+275)
Alright, I'm going to bite on this +275 line for Austin on the moneyline. I get that Austin isn't great on the road with a 1-2-3 record, but they're mid-table for road form in the West. They aren't the worst, which is what San Jose is, at home at least. The Earthquakes are 2-0-4 on their home field. And we're making them the -125 favs?
It's not as if Austin has a major injury to deal with. Sure, Biro has been out since May 12, but they've won back-to-back games since his absence. The only 'drama' going on with Austin is the contract termination for designated player Emiliano Rigoni who wasn't playing like a designated player. That's going to be addition through subtraction.
I feel like the shade tossed at Austin is misplaced here. I like them to prove the doubters wrong and get all three points on the road.
