Ready for another weekend of MLS soccer? I am! I've got you covered with three expert picks for three different matches on Matchday 15.
My record this year isn't great at 7-11 and -3.55 units. But it's improving. Last time out I went 2-1 and +0.24 units of profit. Here's to another week when I move in a positive direction.
MLS Expert Picks: Matchday 15
Inter Miami vs DC United
The Game: Inter Miami vs DC United, Saturday, May 18, 7:30 PM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami | -210 | O3.5 (-115) | |
| DC United | +440 | U3.5 (-110) | |
| Draw | +405 |
Pick: O3.5 (-115)
Both of these teams score a lot and give up a lot of chances. Inter has the best offense in the league (by a healthy 10-goal margin) at 35 goals scored. Big thanks to Messi and Suarez for that. D.C. has the fourth-best offense in the East with 20 goals. Again, these two score a lot.
In terms of defense, there's a lot to be desired, DC and Miami allow the fourth and fifth-most expected goals against at 19.3 and 18.6, respectively.
A 3.5-goal total has gone OVER in DC's last three games and four of Miami's last five.
NYCFC vs NY Red Bulls
The Game: NYCFC vs NY Red Bulls, Saturday, May 18, 7:30 PM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYCFC | +135 | O2.5 (-110) | |
| NY Red Bulls | +200 | U2.5 (-115) | |
| Draw | +230 |
Pick: O2.5 (-110)
I'm playing the total again in this one. In seven home matches this year for NYCFC there have been an average of 2.4 goals. Not enough to hit our total, but it's close. That's where the Red Bulls come in.
When they've been on the road this year there's been an average of 3.5 goals per game. That's more than enough to hit the OVER in this matchup. And in 13 matches this year, the total has gone OVER 2.5 goals nine times (69%) for the Red Bulls.
Real Salt Lake vs Colorado Rapids
The Game: Real Salt Lake vs Colorado Rapids, Saturday, May 18, 9:30 PM ET
| Team | Moneyline | Total | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Salt Lake | -135 | O2.5 (-160) | |
| Colorado Rapids | +350 | U2.5 (+125) | |
| Draw | +280 |
Pick: Real Salt Lake ML (-135)
Real has been excellent at home with a 4-1-1 record and only allowing three goals on 4.2 expected goals. They're playing some incredible defense. And the offense is just as good with 10 goals on 9.8 xG. They're winning by putting away the chances they create and giving up very little. You can't ask for any better.
Colorado is soaring near the top of the tables after a terrible 2023 season. Because of that poor season last year, I don't trust them. I also don't like a +2 road goal differential and a -0.2 expected goal differential. I smell a fraud that RSL should expose.
