It all comes down to Matchday 3 for Iceland. In order to secure safe passage to the knockout round, the Viking descendants will have to beat Group D leaders Croatia and hope for an optimal result between Nigeria and Argentina.
The good news for fans and bettors of the smallest nation competing at the World Cup? A win against Croatia on Tuesday would be Iceland’s second in a row and at +245 on the moneyline at Sportsbook, Iceland is a live dog.
- Croatia is a -20000 favorite to win Group D.
- Iceland beat Croatia 1-0 in European World Cup qualifying.
- Croatia has been issued 6 yellow cards, Iceland has been issued none.
Betting Odds for Iceland vs Croatia
Coming back at +120 on the moneyline, Croatia has all but locked up Group D and can do so as long as they don’t squander a five-goal advantage on the differential. The draw is in play here at +230 also with the Croatians more than happy to play this match in the middle of the field and in their own end.
Moving from 2 to 2.5 since opening, the total might be a good place to look for a bet in this one. Iceland doesn’t offer a lot going forward and Croatia won’t be pressing unnecessarily. UNDER 2.5 is being offered at -150 and while that seems chalky, it’s hard to see where three goals come from in this one.
Can Iceland Beat Croatia Again?
Why not. Croatia doesn’t need anything from this match other than to stay healthy and yellow card-free and could easily give up this result to a desperate team that has proven it can win on a big stage.
The Croatians will also be heavily rotated with six players already on cautions and the yellow-card counter not resetting until the semifinal round.
While I wouldn’t consider this one of the best value spots of the tournament, it’s definitely possible and I’ll commend anyone who wants to back Iceland on the moneyline.
Best Bets for Iceland vs Croatia
For me, the Iceland/draw double chance is the play at -155. This gives us some nice draw insurance in a match that looks well up for a nil-nil. Yes, you’re laying some juice but I see no scenario in which Croatia goes after this game.
Because of that, UNDER 2.5 is also an attractive option and it’s one I’ll be playing heavily.
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