Costa vs Whittaker Odds & Picks: A Strange Line At UFC 298

Paulo Costa is back in the cage this weekend at UFC 298 vs Robert Whittaker, and the odds are stunning.

The Costa vs Whittaker odds are skewed in the Aussie's favor, with Whittaker carrying -225 chalk status over Costa, the +187 underdog.

Paulo Costa vs Robert Whittaker Betting Odds

Odds as of Feb. 13

Our odds calculator suggests Whittaker's -225 status awards him a 69.23% implied chance of victory, with a $100 bet paying out $144.44. At +187, Costa gets a 34.84% chance and a $100 bet cashes $287. 

How To Watch UFC 298

Costa vs Whittaker Betting Preview: What To Expect

This co-main clash will tee up Alexander Volkanovski and Ilia Topuria quite nicely. But there are question marks surrounding both Costa and Whittaker.

"The Reaper" is coming off arguably the most stunning defeat of his career, while Costa hasn't seen live action since UFC 278 in the summer of 2022.

How to Bet Costa vs Whittaker At UFC 298

If this fight took place in 2022, I'd hammer Whittaker at -225, though he'd likely be even more of a favorite. Bobby Knuckles would keep his distance and throw his patented jab-high-kick combos. But now Whittaker is reeling after a shocking upset KO loss to Dricus Du Plessis at UFC 290.

And now my opinion has changed. Perhaps this 33-year-old version of Whittaker can be overwhelmed physically. Costa isn't quite as funky as DDP, but he has the power to light up any opponent. 

Watch for Rob to approach this fight like his matchup vs Marvin Vettori in 2022. He'll keep moving and throw at range, dodging away from the action when Costa advances. Some early damage from range will go a long way.

But Costa is a bruiser, and I love his underdog status. This bout is far closer to a 50/50 than the Brazilian's 35% implied win probability suggests.

Costa vs Whittaker Betting Pick

I'm on Costa as the underdog, and I'll take this bout to go OVER 2.5 rounds.

Pick: Costa to win (+187); OVER 2.5 rounds (-160)