Paddy "The Baddy" Pimblett returns at UFC 304 as a +100 underdog vs Bobby "King" Green, the -125 favorite.
The Pimblett-Green matchup goes down July 27 in Manchester, England, so we've got odds and our best bets for this fight.
Pimblett vs Green Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | +100 |
| Bobby Green | -125 |
Odds as of July 24
Our odds calculator suggests Green's -125 status awards him a 55.56% implied chance of victory, with a $100 bet paying out $180. At +100 odds, Paddy gets a 50% chance and a $100 bet cashes $200.
If you're interested in a breakdown of the UFC 304 main event between Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad, click here.
How To Bet Pimblett
Pimblett wins by staying on offense and pushing Green toward the cage. He'll win this fight if he continually reduces Green's likelihood of defending a clinch or a takedown. Paddy pushed Tony Ferguson back for the duration of the fight at UFC 296 and won easily.
But Green can bang a little more than Ferguson these days, so Pimblett must be cautious and keep himself defended at all times. When Pimblett blitzes, he can tag Green on the chin and follow up or work a methodical submission.
Either way, I'm not sure, so I'm cool with betting Pimblett ML at +100.
How To Bet Green
Green poses a decent challenge for the grapple-first Pimblett. "King" is a natural brawler with excellent takedown defense and strong striking fundamentals. He'll be a far better boxer than Pimblett and will win if this fight gets whittled down to a pure striking duel.
Pimblett tends to enter exchanges with his chin high. Green can snipe that and do some damage, so a stoppage isn't off the table. Of course, the Englishman will likely score a takedown or secure some cage control. That's where Pimblett will test Green's speed and strength, two categories the Brit holds the upper hand in.
I'd rather bet Green by decision (+155) than settle for his current value at -125.
Pimblett vs Green Pick
I'm backing Pimblett at even money, and that's where the buck stops for me. I don't have strong feelings about any total rounds bets, so I'm avoiding that market for this fight.
