UFC Fight Night Wichita: Lewis vs Dos Santos Odds and Picks

The UFC is making its way to Intrust Bank Arena in Wichita, Kansas for the first time in the promotion’s history. The card is headlined with a bout in the heavyweight division as Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis stands toe to toe with former champion Junior “Cigano” Dos Santos. Lewis is coming off a loss against Daniel Cormier and is a +170 underdog, while Dos Santos has won two in a row and is a -210 favorite. I have a breakdown and a pick for each fight on the main card.

Lewis vs Dos Santos Fight Center

Derrick Lewis vs Junior Dos Santos

Lewis (+170) is coming off a second-round submission loss to Daniel Cormier for the heavyweight title at UFC 230. That loss is just the second for the Black Beast in his last 11 fights, and ended a three-fight winning streak.

The 34-year-old has incredible power and heart, having the ability to knock out his opponents right up until the dying seconds of the fight, as was on full display when he finished Alexander Volkov with just 11 seconds remaining in their UFC 229 bout. Of Lewis’ 21 professional wins, 18 have been by knockout, including seven of his last nine.

Dos Santos (-210) is having a bit of a resurgence in his career, picking up consecutive wins for the first time since he won 10 straight from 2008 to 2012. After that 10-fight winning streak, Cigano was on a win-one, lose-one streak over seven fights, but has now rattled off two wins in a row, most recently earning a second-round knockout over Tai Tuivasa in December.

The Brazil native has won 14 of his 20 professional victories by knockout, but only has two wins in that manner since 2013. JDS earned a knockout win over Cain Velasquez in November 2011 and defended the strap once against Frank Mir. The 35-year-old is a brawler who averages 4.78 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 3.13 significant strikes per minute.

This is an excellent brawl between two talented strikers. Don’t expect this fight to hit the ground unless it’s coming after a knockdown. Lewis is more of a counter-striker, which fits perfectly in his game plan as JDS has no problem pushing the pace. I’m very surprised to see the Black Beast as this much of an underdog when either fighter could end the bout with one punch.

Prediction: Derrick Lewis (+170) via knockout

Lewis vs Dos Santos Fight Center

Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos vs Curtis Millender

Dos Santos (EVEN) is looking to extend his six-fight winning streak and his two-fight knockout streak. “Capoeira” lost his UFC debut to Nicolas Dalby by split decision in 2015 and since then has won six in a row, three by knockout and three by decision. The Brazil native has recorded 14 of his 20 professional victories by knockout.

The 32-year-old has very strong kicks and he throws long, straight punches as well and has great explosiveness as he won his last fight with a flying knee. He cuts off the cage very well, always moving forward, and he lands his thunderous kicks when his foes move into his range.

Millender (-130) is looking to remain undefeated in the UFC after picking up three straight wins last year, including a second-round knockout of Thiago Alves in his debut. “Curtious” went to the judges’ scorecards in his next two fights, earning unanimous decision victories in both. Going the distance has been a common occurrence for the 31-year-old as 11 of his 17 professional wins have come by decision.

Millender has a tall, long frame, and he uses his reach well to keep his opponents at bay. Similar to light heavyweight champion Jon Jones, Curtious throws plenty of front kicks to the thigh that really slows down his opponent as the fight progresses. His movement is very good and he only absorbs 2.93 significant strikes per minute and avoids 63 percent of his foes’ attempts.

Dos Santos is going to have the power advantage in this fight, but Millender should have the speed and reach advantage. Both fighters have really good kicks. Capoeria throws his kicks to end the fight, while Curtious uses his kicks to slow down his opponents and take the power out of their strikes. I think dos Santos has a massive advantage on the floor if it gets there, but he only secures 10 percent of his takedown attempts.

Prediction: Curtis Millender (-130) via decision

Zaleski dos Santos vs Millender Fight Center

Tim Means vs Niko Price

Means (-210) is looking for consecutive wins for the first time since 2016 as he is coming off a first-round knockout win over Ricky Rainey in November of last year. The triumph put a stop to a two-fight losing slide for “The Dirty Bird” with both defeats coming by split decision. Means’ last winning streak came when he earned back-to-back knockouts over John Howard in 2015 and Sabah Homasi at UFC 202 in 2016.

The 35-year-old presses forward looking to get in wild exchanges with his opponents, as 19 of his 28 career wins have come by knockout, while only one of his 10 losses has come in that manner. Means is strong for the welterweight division, with the ability to throw his opponents around if he gets his hands on them so he can rain down vicious ground and pound.

Price (+170) is coming off his second loss in the UFC as he was knocked out in the first round by Abdul Razak Alhassan at UFC 228 in September of last year. That defeat ended a two-fight winning streak, both of which were finishes, and all of his seven fights in the UFC have been finishes. This is also par for the course for “The Hybrid” as only one of his 15 pro fights has gone to the judges’ scorecards.

The 29-year-old has won eight of his 12 professional victories by knockout, with three triumphs by submission. Price likes to move backward to draw his opponents into him before he storms forward with his powerful right hand. He also has a nice lead left hook that he will throw out frequently instead of using a jab.

This is great matchmaking in my opinion as we have a guy willing to push the pace on the feet in Tim Means, going against a guy who likes to wait for his opponents to come to him in Niko Price. Both fighters have good power and perhaps even better chins as they each only have one knockout loss in their careers. The Dirty Bird is better at avoiding strikes and that may be the difference maker.

Prediction: Tim Means (-210) via decision

Means vs Price Fight Center

Blagoy Ivanov vs Ben Rothwell

Ivanov (-135) is returning to the Octagon following a loss in his debut to Junior Dos Santos in July of last year. That defeat put an end to a five-fight winning streak that came in different organizations other than the UFC. “Baga” is a well-rounded fighter who has six wins by T/KO, six by submission and four by decision.

The Bulgaria native had a tough first draw in the UFC, going five full rounds with former heavyweight champion JDS. Ivanov throws a lot of feints looking to find opportunities to land his heavy hands. In his fight with Dos Santos, he spent a lot of the fight looking to counter, while absorbing a ton of damage that he wore well.

Rothwell (+105) is returning to the Octagon for the first time since April of 2016, when he lost to Junior Dos Santos by five-round decision. The 37-year-old had a two-year suspension for testing positive for an anabolic steroid. The defeat to JDS in 2016 ended a four-fight winning streak, all of them finishes.

The Wisconsin native has earned finishes in 33 of his 36 wins, with 20 by knockout and 13 by submission. Rothwell would often march forward with his hands by his sides looking to close the distance and unload his heavy hands, but that opened him up to taking punishment as he absorbs 3.92 significant strikes per minute.

A two-year layoff for a guy who is now 37 years old will surely show in some ring rust. Rothwell fought Junior Dos Santos as the No. 5-ranked heavyweight in the division in 2016, but I have a hard time believing he will be at that level in his return. Marching forward against Ivanov is a dangerous tactic as he wants you in striking distance so he can unload his thunderous punches.

Prediction: Blagoy Ivanov (-135) via knockout

Ivanov vs Rothwell Fight Center

Beneil Dariush vs Drew Dober

Dariush (-200) got back in the win column his last time out and is looking to string together consecutive wins for the first time since 2016. The Iran native had a three-fight winless streak before his unanimous decision win over Thiago Moises in November last year. During his slide, he was knocked out by Edson Barboza and Alexander Hernandez, while also having a majority draw against Evan Dunham.

The 29-year-old has very good kicks and has a calm approach to his fights, not using a lot of extra movement to avoid strikes. He averages 3.92 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.64 significant strikes per minute. He also has a good wrestling pedigree, averaging 1.47 takedowns per 15 minutes where he works toward submissions, the manner in which six of his 15 professional wins have come.

Dober (+160) is looking to build upon his three-fight winning streak, including back-to-back unanimous decision triumphs. The 30-year-old has just one loss in his last six fights, being submitted in the second round by Olivier Aubin-Mercier at UFC 206 in 2016. Most recently, he put on a tremendous performance by outstriking Jon Tuck 122-39 in August of last year.

The Nebraska native has really powerful kicks which he uses to keep his opponents at a far distance. Dober has finished 13 of his 20 victories, nine by submission, but hasn’t earned a win in that manner since 2014. In the standup department, he averages 4.45 significant strikes but absorbs 4.17.

Dariush has a better defensive game when the two fighters will be on their feet, but Dober will be more active offensively looking to land his heavy kicks. Both fighters have good submission skills, but I think Dariush has the edge in getting the fight to the floor. 

Prediction: Beneil Dariush (-200) via decision

Dariush vs Dober Fight Center

Tim Boetsch vs Omari Akhmedov

Boetsch (+120) returns to the Octagon for the first time since his first-round submission loss to Antonio Carlos Junior in April of last year. That defeat was the second in the last three fights for “The Barbarian,” with both losses coming by submission. His lone win over that span was a TKO victory over former welterweight champion Johny Hendricks.

The 38-year-old is a brawler who can absorb a ton of damage as he searches of opportunities to land his heavy hands. Of his 21 professional wins, 16 have been finishes, 11 by knockout and five by submission, while nine of his 12 losses were also finishes, four by knockout and five by submission. Boetsch averages 2.94 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.86.

Akhmedov (-150) is looking to extend his three-fight unbeaten streak, coming off a majority decision draw against Marvin Vettori at UFC 219 in 2017. That was the third consecutive fight that went to the judges’ scorecards for the Russia native, after he earned a unanimous decision win over Kyle Noke and a split decision win over Abdul Razak Alhassan in May of 2017.

The 31-year-old has great wrestling, averaging 2.89 takedowns, and that was on full display when he dragged Razak Alhassan to the floor six times in their bout. Meanwhile, when the fight is on the feet, he swings from the hip with 100 percent power in every strike.

It’s hard to count The Barbarian out in his fights as he has a great ability to dig deep and find a way to earn a victory. However, he only defends 57 percent of his opponent’s takedown attempts, which is not a good recipe against “Wolverine.” I expect Akhmedov to drag the fight to the floor over and over again, softening up Boetsch with ground and pound.

Prediction: Omari Akhmedov (-150) via decision

Boetsch vs Akhmedov Fight Center

Here’s a look at the full list of odds for UFC Fight Night Wichita: Lewis vs Dos Santos: