Former UFC women's flyweight title challenger Amanda Lemos is a -138 favorite over Virna Jandiroba (+110) at the promotion's upcoming Fight Night event on July 20.
Let's take a look at all the updated Lemos vs Jandiroba odds and our best bets for the main event.
Lemos vs Jandiroba Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | -138 |
| Virna Jandiroba | +110 |
Odds as of July 17
Our odds calculator suggests Lemos' -138 odds imply a 57.98% chance of victory, with a $100 bet paying out $172.48. At +110, Jandiroba gets a 47.62% chance, and a $100 bet cashes $210.
How Lemos Wins
Lemos is an all-action striker, famous for fierce finishes and violent offense, though she's quite weak in takedown and grappling defense, as evidenced by her struggles against Mackenzie Dern and champ Zhang Weili, who wrestled her to a victory at UFC 289.
To win this fight, Lemos can't be scared of the takedown, though if Virdoba, a grappling specialist, lands a favorable position, she might hold it for the round. Each round begins on the feet, and Lemos must be a marauder, cracking Jandiroba with everything she's got.
Ultimately, Lemos by KO is the best outcome for bettors who favor the former title challenger. If this fight goes the distance, Jandiroba likely has it on points. Take Lemos or take the UNDERs in this five-round fight.
How Jandiroba Wins
Jandiroba must take advantage of Lemos' weak grappling defense. We saw "Amandinha" surrender her back multiple times to Weili at UFC 289, but the champ somehow couldn't lock in a submission. That says more about Weili's poor submission game than anything, as the opportunities were there.
Now Jandiroba has a real shot at a submission, especially if she can repeatedly take Lemos down and hold her on the bottom for large chunks of time. Jandiroba knows she's a one-dimensional grappler and commits to that style. Hats off to her.
I like a sneaky prop on Jandiroba to win by submission, as I believe this fight ends inside the distance either way, but she's safest as a ML bet, which leaves room for the possibility this fight carries into the later rounds.
Lemos vs Jandiroba Betting Pick
Grappler vs striker: an all-time stylistic matchup. In a three-round fight, I'd be all over a bet on Jandiroba by decision. However, we've got five full rounds to play with, meaning Lemos can afford to sit on the bottom for a Round or two and still pop up and swing away.
Lemos by KO is my best bet. I also like the UNDER 3.5 rounds.
