Holland vs Ponzinibbio Odds & Pick: Trailblazer Can Find Window For KO

A fun welterweight bout between Kevin Holland and Santiago Ponzinibbio takes place April 8 on the main card at UFC 287. Holland is the -275 favorite, making Ponzinibbio a +225 underdog.

UFC 287: Kevin Holland vs Santiago Ponzinibbio Betting Odds

Odds as of March 31

Our odds calculator tells us Holland’s -275 chalk gives him an implied win probability of 73.33 percent and a $10 bet pays out $13.64. Ponzinibbio’s +225 odds equate to a 30.77 percent chance of victory with a $10 bet paying out $32.50. 

UFC 287: Holland vs Ponzinibbio Preview

Holland opened as a narrow favorite (-132) but has grown to be the resounding -275 fave. My gut tells me that’s too much chalk for “Trailblazer,” so let’s see if Ponzinibbio can pull off an upset. 

What Holland Does Well

The 30-year-old is an entertainer in the Octagon, a polished striker capable of demolishing opponents with long straights and fiery elbows. His last fight vs Stephen Thompson at UFC Orlando was a closely contested banger, though Holland eventually retired after Round 4 due to a broken hand. 

Holland and Ponzinibbio are very different. The American will have an eight-inch reach advantage at UFC 287 and he’s far quicker than the stocky Argentine who relies more on power. Knowing Holland’s instincts as a showman, I imagine he’ll try to kick the crap out of his opponent. Volume will be Holland’s friend because Ponzinibbio could easily put him out with a single shot.

What Ponzinibbio Does Well

I was quite impressed with Ponzinibbio at UFC 282, where he looked more explosive than in previous fights. “The Argentine Dagger” waited until the final moments, but he popped Alex Morono with a deadly overhand right to score the knockout. That said, there are still problems in his game Holland can exploit.

Ponzinibbio bobs his shoulders and wings his hooks; he’s strong but not terribly efficient, and I have some cardio concerns. There are windows where Holland can bomb in with a hook or high kick, and I think he’ll find them on April 8. Perhaps Ponzinibbio can dance around Holland’s onslaught, but I reckon he’ll get caught before 15 minutes is up. 

Holland vs Ponzinibbio Pick

With Ponzinibbio’s win over Morono at UFC 282, eight of his 16 fights have ended inside the distance. That’s what bettors should be weighing in this fight. Holland is unpredictable but he’s sharpened his act lately, and I think he gets the dub. 

The prop value might change my mind, but for now, I’m counting on Holland to snipe a KO/TKO and get the win inside the distance.

Pick: Holland by KO/TKO (TBD); Fight ends inside the distance (TBD)

While you’re here, check out our other UFC 287 main card previews: 

UFC 287: Full Card & Betting Odds

Odds as of March 31