Jon Jones wants a superfight, and after his victory at UFC 309, Jones opened as a -600 favorite over Alex Pereira (+450 underdog) in a future heavyweight super fight
The Jones vs Pereira odds clearly count on "Bones" wrestling the light heavyweight champ. A kickboxer by trade, Pereira has proven to be vulnerable to grappling attacks in past fights, falling victim to takedowns without much of a response.
Here are our Jones vs Pereira odds and picks for this fight.
Jones vs Pereira Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jon Jones | -600 |
| Alex Pereira | +400 |
Odds as of November 18th
Using our odds calculator, we know Jones' -600 odds suggest an 85.71% chance of winning, and a $100 bet pays out $116.17. Pereira's +400 underdog odds give him a 20% chance of winning, with a $100 bet paying out $500.
Why Is Jones a heavy Favorite vs Pereira?
Jones' style would be especially problematic for an upright kickboxer such as Pereira. "Poatan" is famous for standing tall and nearly facing his chest to his opponent as he snaps off low kicks.
Jones is famous for his skinny legs, so perhaps Pereira finds some momentum there, but it's far likelier Bones scores an easy takedown and racks up damage. Based on Pereira's previous UFC fights, there's nothing to suggest he can stand up after Jones pins him down. And with Jones' all-time ground-and-pound talents, the oddsmakers assume it'll be lights out the moment this fight hits the mat, especially with Jones' weight advantage.
How To Bet Jones
Jones by KO is still the move. In my eyes, Pereira's grappling vulnerabilities open up a greater chance for Jones to crush him with elbows, not secure a choke. Once Poatan gets flat on his back, he'll take a page out of Stipe Miocic's book and play defensively until the round ends.
Jones' -600 status is exactly what we saw ahead of his fight vs Miocic. This time, though, Poatan is a much sharper striker than Jones, meaning there's a greater incentive for Jones to wrestle immediately.
Jones by KO is the move. I'd also consider a Jones to win + the OVER 1.5 rounds.
How To Bet Pereira
Pereira by knockout is the only way. It's fine to bet Poatan ML at +400, but the KO prop — perhaps even KO + UNDER 2.5 — would boost that value further. I'm not a believer that Poatan can win this fight, so I'd take a bargain-hunting approach.
Go with Pereira by KO north of +400.
Jones vs Aspinall Betting Pick
Like with Jones vs Miocic, I'm on Jones to crunch Pereira by KO, likely in a ground-and-pound scenario. I have no clear vision for a rounds prop (as the odds will sway my pick), but the OVER 1.5 sounds safe to me.
