While the Usman vs Shavkat odds aren't out, the least I can do is break down a great hypothetical fight.
Shavkat Rakhmonov needs a new opponent for UFC 310 after Belal Muhammad's injury, and Kamaru Usman fits the mold perfectly. The ex-champ middleweight could pose some stylistic troubles for Rakhmonov, who has finished all 18 MMA wins.
The official odds aren't out, but I imagine Shavkat comes in as a -275 or -300 favorite vs Usman, with the chance for even steeper odds due to the short-notice nature of the fight.
Here's a look at the Usman vs Shavkat odds, with a betting preview and picks for UFC 310 on December 7.
Usman vs Shavkat Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | +250 |
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | -300 |
*Hypothetical odds
How To Bet Usman
In this scenario, Usman benefits from facing Rakhmonov after a brawl with Khamzat Chimaev in 2023. It's hard to find a more perfect stylistic comp for Shavkat. While Chimaev is more of a traditional grappler from hell, both he and Shavkat possess outstanding offensive grappling and an incredible squeeze. But Chimaev couldn't put Usman away in Round 1 and faded as the fight continued. Give Usman some credit for that one.
The former welterweight champ must fight just as hard in the first round. I can't imagine Shavkat comes out as crazy as Khamzat, but Usman must fend off some chain grappling attempts early. From there, the best bet would be on Usman to win a decision or maybe score a late stoppage (as we don't know how Shavkat's gas tank holds up).
How To Bet Shavkat
"Nomad" may already be the best 170-pounder in the UFC. Unfortunately, we were robbed of that matchup vs Belal, but an Usman consolation remains a good test (and a big step up from Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson).
Shavkat is a devastating wrestler, but that's Usman's greatest strength. "The Nigerian Nightmare" played great defense against Chimaev at UFC 294, despite some compromising positions.
It all makes me wonder: can Shavkat finish Usman in a five-round format? I doubt it. Leon Edwards clapped Usman with that fateful headkick in Salt Lake City, but that marked his lone stoppage loss in the UFC.
Shavkat might wear him down, but he won't finish the 37-year-old. Bet Shavkat by decision.
Usman vs Shavkat Betting Pick
I'll bet the prop odds will suggest it's likelier Shavkat gets things done inside the distance. That's great for us, as the best play is Rakhmonov to win by decision.
