The “Notorious” Conor McGregor looked better than ever when he returned to the Octagon at UFC 246 on January 18. The former “champ champ” disposed of Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone in just 40 seconds and it appears a date with BMF titleholder Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal is on the horizon. Although the fight hasn’t been announced, online sportsbook Sportsbook has released a line for this potential bout, with Masvidal being a -165 favorite and McGregor coming back at +145.
Odds Analysis
If you look at Conor McGregor’s odds history, he has been an underdog just twice in his career – once in the lightweight title fight he lost to Khabib Nurmagomedov via fourth-round submission and the other time in a boxing match with Floyd Mayweather. So it is quite shocking to see the Irishman as a +145 underdog against Jorge Masvidal, who has been favored just once in his last six fights. That said, Gamebred is coming off a remarkable 2019 that saw him go 3-0 with three finishes over Darren Till, Ben Askren and Nate Diaz.
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Conor McGregor | +145 |
| Jorge Masvidal | -165 |
Odds as of January 21 at Sportsbook
How Will This Fight Play Out?
Two top-level strikers standing toe to toe is as exciting as it comes for fight fans. Masvidal is known as one of the toughest fighters in the UFC, which has earned him the BMF belt. The Florida native has just one knockout loss in his 48 pro-fight career (not including his many backyard fights) and that came outside of the UFC way back in 2008 – he has had 31 fights since then against the who’s who of MMA. Additionally, his last five wins have been T/KOs, including his flying knee knockout of Ben Askren that set social media on fire.
A similar story can be written about McGregor, with 19 of his 22 pro wins coming by knockout, including most recently needing just 40 seconds to score a TKO over Donald Cerrone at UFC 246. Notorious has an excellent fight IQ and a lightning-fast, powerful left hand that strikes fear in his opponents. He showed a new side in the Cerrone victory as he was extremely aggressive in searching for the knockout rather than waiting for it to present itself with counters.
Which Fighter Has The Most Betting Value?
Absolutely, Conor McGregor has a ton of betting value here. As mentioned earlier, the only two men McGregor has faced as an underdog were undefeated mixed martial artist Khabib Nurmagomedov and undefeated boxer Floyd Mayweather. His striking is unmatched by anybody in his weight classes, and his power, timing and IQ put him in a class of his own, so getting him as a ‘dog is well worth a wager. I believe that Masvidal is overvalued due to a recency bias from his performance last year and fighting a crafty striker like McGregor could be a tough task.
