Despite the light heavyweight champion's prowess of late, Alex Pereira opened as a +120 underdog in a future UFC bout vs Magomed Ankalaev, the -140 favorite.
Pereira seems destined for a matchup vs Ankalaev early in 2024 after the Brazilian dismantled Khalil Rountree for his fourth straight win, while Ankalaev soundly defeated Aleksandar Rakic.
Let's dive into our Pereira vs Ankalaev preview, featuring odds and best bets.
Pereira vs Ankalaev Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | +120 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | -140 |
Odds as of October 26
Using our odds calculator, we can determine Ankalaev's -140 odds suggest a 58.33% chance of winning, and a $100 bet pays out $171.43. The champ Pereira's +120 underdog status gives him a 45.45% chance of winning, with a $100 bet paying out $220.
Why Is Pereira An underdog?
It's a good question. Dagestani fighters, such as Ankalaev often open as massive favorites. In this case, the sportsbooks see Ankalaev's wrestling background as a big problem for Pereira, who comes a from kickboxing base.
Pereira's +120 odds aren't gobsmackingly bad, but the public should correct the line once the fight is booked.
How Pereira wins
Start by defending the takedown. Ankalaev will shoot with conventional takedowns, forcing "Poatan" to react. So far, Pereira has demonstrated respectable takedown prevention, defending at a 70% clip. That's not elite, but it's solid for a tall guy with a very upright stance.
Once Pereira wiggles to his feet after a takedown, he must open Ankalaev up with feints and short kicks. The champ made an excellent read on Prochazka at UFC 303, first by noticing how the Czech native dropped his hands to defend leg kicks, and then scoring a left high kick upstairs for the KO.
Ankalaev is a well-rounded fighter, but he's prone to mental lapses. His lack of fight awareness at UFC 280 resulted in a draw for the light heavyweight title, and the Russian socked Johnny Walker with an illegal knee at UFC 284.
Pereira can frustrate his opponent with sharp kicks and persistent takedown defense. Bet Poatan ML if he's the underdog. If the line moves, then Pereira by KO is a great bet.
How Ankalaev Wins
Ankalaev wins by causing a little chaos and making the champ sweat. Of course, the takedowns are an easy first step to getting that done, but Pereira has shown improved defense over the years and is unlikely to succumb to a submission.
The Russian stands little chance in a back-and-forth striking exchange with the champion. Ankalaev has been vulnerable to leg kicks in the past, so he'll want to stay off the center line. From there, he can feint takedowns or walk the fight to the clinch, where he can attack more creatively.
If I'm betting Ankalaev as the chalk, I'll take him to win by decision.
Pereira vs Ankalaev Betting Pick
The odds will move a great deal once this fight is booked, but for now, I'm taking Pereira at +120 for the easiest moneyline bet I've ever placed in my life.
