The UFC has another banger in the works, as lightweights Dustin Poirier (28-7) and Michael Chandler (23-7) will square off at UFC 281 on November 12.
This clash will come on the main card of the Madison Square Garden event. “The Diamond” is coming in with some extra motivation after he and Chandler started some bad blood originating from an Octagon-side confrontation at UFC 276.
Wow 🤩 @DustinPoirier vs @MikeChandlerMMA pic.twitter.com/Dw7aYb9ueV
— GILBERT BURNS DURINHO (@GilbertDurinho) July 3, 2022
Beef aside, this is an epic lightweight tangle. Right now, Sportsbook has Dustin as the -230 favorite in the Poirier vs Chandler odds.
Dustin Poirier vs Michael Chandler Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier | -230 |
| Michael Chandler | +185 |
Odds as of November 8 via Sportsbook
Analyzing the Poirier vs Chandler odds using our sports betting calculator, Poirier’s -230 odds translate to an implied win probability of 69.70 percent. Chandler’s +185 odds suggest he has a 25.97 percent chance to win. That means a successful $10 bet on The Diamond would pay out $14.35, while the same bet on “Iron” Mike earns you $28.50.
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Our full UFC 281 odds and picks are available here.
Dustin Poirier vs Michael Chandler Betting Odds Analysis
Chandler, ranked fifth, and Poirier, ranked second, have been on a collision course from the moment the former Bellator champion entered the UFC. Iron Mike has shown no fear in challenging the division’s best, fighting Dan Hooker (+130), Charles Oliveira (+110), Justin Gaethje (+175) and Tony Ferguson (-370).
The 36-year-old reminded everyone of his power in his last fight at UFC 274 when he viciously knocked out Ferguson with a heavy front kick, becoming the first fight “El Cucuy” unconscious.
Brutal KO Michael Chandler Vs Tony Ferguson UFC 274 new pic.twitter.com/gkQNRyhnJL
— Fightgame (@futurefightsnew) May 8, 2022
Poirier’s traversed a similar treacherous path to this fight vs Chandler. He’s fought the scariest in the division, starting with a loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 242, followed by wins over Hooker and Conor McGregor (twice). The 33-year-old got a crack at the lightweight strap vs Oliveira (-135) at UFC 269, but lost by rear naked choke in Round 3.
Poirier vs Chandler Preview: Slowed Tempo Key For Iron Mike
Chandler entered the UFC with a reputation as a wrestler with heavy hands – he’s reinforced that notion in each of his fights. He put Hooker out with an iron left hook; he took down Ferguson with the front kick, and he even rocked Gaethje multiple times at UFC 268, the last time he fought at MSG.
But if there’s a weakness to Chandler’s approach, it’s that he gets too wired early. In that fight vs Gaethje, he came out unloading cannon-like right hands and tried his best to match his opponent’s pace with low kicks. Chandler gave the fans one of the most entertaining fights of 2021, but by Round 2, some of the pop was gone from his punches and kicks, and his face was a bloody mess.
When Chandler battled Oliveira for the vacant 155-pound belt at UFC 262, Iron Mike had the Brazilian dead to rights at multiple points in Round 1. First, he had Oliveira locked in a guillotine, then he landed his patented left hook and dropped “Do Bronx” to the canvas. But Oliveira latched onto Chandler, pulling him close with suffocating jiu-jitsu. Oliveira would knock him out shortly into Round 2.
If this fight is indeed five rounds, as Poirier claimed, pacing will be key. If Chandler can temper his intensity, he’ll have a better chance.
A Dogfight Favors Poirier
Like Chandler, The Diamond isn’t shy about slugging it out with the best of the best – and, in a dogfight, Poirier has the advantage. In his career, the 33-year-old has averaged 5.61 strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.28 per minute, which tells us he’s unafraid of taking damage.
Poirier’s resume includes wins over Max Holloway, Eddie Alvarez and Gaethje. His approach involves so much confidence, to the point that he can stand in the pocket against anyone, often mixing in just one or two tweaks depending on the opponent.
At UFC 257, it was an emphasis on the calf kicks that helped him decimate McGregor. Watch for a high output of low kicks again at UFC 281. Gaethje compromised Chandler with calf kicks in their last brawl, forcing him to switch to southpaw, where his combos weren’t as effective. No one in the UFC kicks the way Gaethje does, but Chandler didn’t check many of those shots, which is something Poirier certainly took note of.
Poirier vs Chandler Betting Pick
Both guys have very similar skillsets. They are polished strikers with strong wrestling bases. That said, the minor details favor Poirier. The Diamond has more five-round experience, a stronger submission game (see his guillotine attempt vs Khabib at UFC 242) and he’s a southpaw, meaning he can shell up against Chandler’s combos a little better.
Poirier’s shared the Octagon with a long list of killers at 155 pounds. Chandler is a tantalizing physical threat, but we think Dustin has the will and the savviness to win out.
