The light heavyweight division will be on the marquee for this week’s UFC Fight Night with Thiago Santos vs Magomed Ankalaev as the headliner. This is a battle between the No. 5-ranked light heavyweight, Santos, and No. 6 Ankalaev.
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs Ankalaev is taking place Saturday, March 12, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, with the Sportsbook fight of the night taking place at 4 p.m. ET. In Santos vs Ankalaev odds, it is the lower-ranked fighter who is favored.
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Santos vs Ankalaev Notes
Following a three-fight losing skid, including a split-decision loss in his attempt at winning the light heavyweight title vs Jon Jones, Thiago Santos finally got back in the win column last October with a decision victory over Johnny Walker.
Meanwhile, it has been four years since Magomed Ankalaev last tasted defeat, way back in his UFC debut. Since then, he has rattled off seven straight wins and has all the momentum to challenge for the belt in the not-too-distant future.
Santos vs Ankalaev Odds
Online sportsbook Sportsbook has released the Santos vs Ankalaev odds and has listed Magomed as the sizable -550 chalk and Thiago the +375 underdog. This means to profit $100 with an Ankalaev win, you need to lay $550 while a $100 winning wager on Santos nets you $375.
To further understand the odds, we can use our sports betting calculator. There, you will see that Ankalaev’s betting line translates to an implied win probability of 84.62 percent while Santos’ odds represent an implied win probability of 21.05 percent.
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If you’re looking to add the biggest favorite in the UFC Fight Night: Santos vs Ankalaev odds to a parlay, that fighter would be Ankalaev in the main event. If you want to try your betting hand on the fight with the tightest odds, you would be looking at the prelim bout between Kamuela Kirk and Damon Jackson, which is set as a pick’em with both men holding -115 odds.
Santos vs Ankalaev Betting Odds & Fight Card
- Main Card
- Light Heavyweight – Thiago Santos (+375) vs Magomed Ankalaev (-550)
- Bantamweight – Marlon Moraes (+200) vs Song Yadong (-260)
- Featherweight – Sodiq Yusuff (-250) vs Alex Caceres (+200)
- Light Heavyweight – Khalil Rountree (+100) vs Karl Roberson (-130)
- Lightweight – Drew Dober (-160) vs Terrance McKinney (+130)
- Middleweight – Alex Pereira (-180) vs Bruno Silva (+150)
- Prelims
- Welterweight – Matthew Semelsberger (-210) vs AJ Fletcher (+165)
- Women’s Flyweight – JJ Aldrich (-105) vs Gillian Robertson (-125)
- Bantamweight – Trevin Jones (+110) vs Javid Basharat (-140)
- Featherweight – Damon Jackson (-115) vs Kamuela Kirk (-115)
- Women’s Flyweight – Sabina Mazo (+240) vs Miranda Maverick (-320)
- Middleweight – Dalcha Lungiambula (-135) vs Cody Brundage (+105)
- Bantamweight – Kris Moutinho (-160) vs Guido Cannetti (+130)
- Light Heavyweight – Tafon Nchukwi (+155) vs Azamat Murzakanov (-185)
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- Date/Time: March 12, 4 p.m. ET
- Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
- Arena: UFC Apex
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs Ankalaev Best Bets
Below I will provide my three favorite UFC picks for this weekend’s card, including a play on the main event.
Thiago Santos vs Magomed Ankalaev Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Thiago Santos | +375 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | -550 |
Searching for consecutive wins for the first time since 2019 is former title challenger Thiago “Marreta” Santos (+375). To succeed, he must knock off Magomed Ankalaev (-550), who is unbeaten since 2018.
- Prior to Santos’ three-fight losing skid, including a championship fight loss to Jon Jones, he had won four in a row, including three knockouts. Overall, he holds a 22-9 record with 15 knockout wins, while his losses are divided equally among three knockouts, three submissions and three decisions.
- Evident in his record with 15 knockout victories, “Marreta” – which translates to “sledgehammer” – has outstanding power in both his hands and kicks. However, with big power, he lacks a lot of output, surpassing 100 significant strikes in a fight just once over 22 UFC bouts.
- Santos has had some difficulties stuffing takedowns, defending 66 percent of attempts, and was taken down four times in his submission loss to Glover Teixeira in 2020.
- He is often willing to be backed up against the cage, solely looking to counter heavily when his opponent closes the distance, but he frequently throws just one strike at a time. That said, there’s no denying that if he lands cleanly, the fight is almost always over.
- Santos’ last three fights were Glover Teixeira (loss – submission), Aleksandar Rakic (loss – unanimous decision) and Johnny Walker (win – unanimous decision).
- Ankalaev’s loss in his UFC debut that was mentioned off the top is in fact the only blemish on his record. He is 15-1 with eight knockout wins and that lone submission loss to Paul Craig with one second remaining in the bout.
- The Dagestan product is a well-rounded mixed martial artist, though he does his best work on the feet. He is extremely technical with a high-level fight IQ. Like Santos, Ankalaev doesn’t have a tremendous output, averaging 3.60 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.05.
- In the grappling department, he has secured four takedowns over his last two fights after landing just two in his previous six bouts. He is a Greco Roman world champion so if he gets in close, it’s bad news for his foes.
- One impressive aspect of Magomed’s game is that he very often will throw combinations with his hands rather than one shot at a time. His counters are crisp and accurate and his kicks are lightning-fast and devastating.
- Ankalaev’s last three fights were Ion Cutelaba (win – knockout), Nikita Krylov (win – unanimous decision) and Volkan Oezdemir (win – unanimous decision).
Prediction: Magomed Ankalaev Inside The Distance (+110)
Alex Pereira vs Bruno Silva Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | -180 |
| Bruno Silva | +150 |
Kicking off the main card is Alex “Poatan” Pereira (-180), who made his UFC debut at UFC 268 in November and turned heads with his flying knee knockout. He will look to extend his three-fight winning streak against Bruno “Blindado” Silva (+150), who is unbeaten in over five years and looking for his eighth win in a row.
- While Pereira made headlines with his win in November, he may be best known for knocking out middleweight champion Israel Adesanya in a kickboxing match. His professional MMA record is brief at 4-1 with four knockouts and one submission loss.
- Poatan is a big middleweight at six-foot-four with a 79-inch reach that gives him a five-inch reach advantage in this fight. He was impressive in his debut, scoring a second-round knockout win and landing 11 significant strikes while absorbing only three, though he was taken down twice.
- His kicks are devastating, his reads are outstanding and it seems as though everything that he lands does immediate damage that shows on his opponents’ faces.
- Pereira’s last three fights were Marcus Vinicius Fialho da Silveira (win – knockout), Thomas Powell (win – knockout) and Andreas Michailidis (win – knockout).
- It has been three up, three down for Silva in the UFC, winning each of his three walks to the Octagon. His record is now 22-6 with 19 knockout wins while five of his defeats have come by submission.
- Like Pereira, Blindado wants to keep this fight standing as most of his losses have been by submission and he was taken down seven times in his win over Andrew Sanchez. He has a high output of 5.74 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 2.87, but he makes his opponents miss only 32 percent of the time, so he’s hittable.
- Silva tends to stalk his foes as he moves forward and at times he doesn’t fire back when he’s absorbing shots. That said, when he does end up letting his hands go, he has outstanding power that can shut the lights off in a hurry.
- Silva’s last three fights were Wellington Turman (win – knockout), Andrew Sanchez (win – knockout) and Jordan Wright (win – knockout).
Prediction: Alex Pereira (-180)
Khalil Rountree vs Karl Roberson Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Khalil Rountree | +100 |
| Karl Roberson | -130 |
Looking to bust out of his first-ever losing skid is Karl “Baby K” Roberson (-130), who searches for his first win in over two years. Meanwhile, it has been more than four years since Khalil “The War Horse” Rountree (+100) won back-to-back fights but he has a chance to do so with this bout.
- Rountree has struggled to find his footing in the UFC, never having a winning or losing streak of more than two over 11 UFC bouts. He holds a 9-5 record with one no contest and six of his wins have been knockouts while three of his defeats are finishes (two knockouts, one submission).
- The southpaw fighter is a striker, having landed a total of zero takedowns over his UFC career. On the feet, it has been hit-or-miss for The War Horse – in some fights he looks unhittable and unstoppable, and in others he gets picked apart.
- Since he started training in Thailand, his kicking game has become absolutely terrifying and in his last fight, he was all-out aggression, throwing massive power hooks before ending the fight with a kick to the thigh.
- Rountree’s last three fights were Ion Cutelaba (loss – knockout), Marcin Prachnio (loss – unanimous decision) and Modestas Bukauskas (win – knockout).
- Roberson found some success in the middleweight division early on, winning four of five fights, but his lone trip to light heavyweight ended in a first-round loss so it’s a bit surprising to see him go back to that weight class. He is now 9-4 with six stoppage wins (two knockouts, four submissions) while he has been submitted in all four of his losses.
- Baby K uses more tactics than Rountree in that he mixes in nearly one takedown per 15 minutes and on the floor is quite good at finding submissions. But he also has been submitted four times.
- He uses a lot of flinches and he’s quite fast but at times is just too hesitant, averaging just 2.87 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.38. Roberson has a nice jab and his kicks are fairly good as well but I find he doesn’t set up his shots well.
- Roberson’s last three fights were Roman Kopylov (win – submission), Marvin Vettori (loss – submission) and Brendan Allen (loss – submission).
