The final UFC event of 2024 takes place in Tampa Bay, and the Covington vs Buckley odds are synced with how I'm picking this fight.
Joaquin Buckley is a -275 favorite over Colby Covington, the +225 underdog, ahead of their five-round welterweight brawl on December 14 at UFC Tampa. Buckley comes in with plenty of momentum, recently winning by knockout over Stephen Thompson, while Covington looked sluggish in his title loss to Leon Edwards one year ago.
Covington vs Buckley Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Colby Covington | +225 |
| Joaquin Buckley | -275 |
Odds as of Dec. 13
Our odds calculator suggests Buckley's -275 odds imply a 73.33% chance of victory, with a $100 bet paying out $136.36. At +225 odds, Covington gets a 30.77% chance, and a $100 bet cashes $325.
How To Bet Buckley
I'm a believer in Buckley's resurgence. "New Mansa" has looked more dangerous and calculated since dropping to welterweight, where his power plays big. His KO vs Wonderboy will only boost his confidence — he'll need that emotional strength against an agitator like Covington.
I won't say Buckley is a complete match with Covington in the grappling department, but he'll be well-equipped to handle any trouble. If the washed-up version of Covington that fought Edwards shows up in this fight, he'll get starched.
I think Buckley will clam up a bit against a top contender like Covington, leading to a duller fight than expected. Within that logic, I will bet Buckley by decision.
How To Bet Covington
I'm steering clear of Covington regardless of his alluring underdog status. He found little momentum last time vs Edwards and showed no accountability for his bleak performance. Now a year older against an explosive opponent — a man more explosive than Leon — Covington doesn't have much going for him.
That said, "Chaos" has a hell of a gas tank and a fair fight IQ. He could eke something out, so, if I were playing Colby, I'd go with a value bet on Covington by decision
Covington vs Buckley Betting Pick
I'm not a Covington hater, but he could be cooked in this sudden bloodbath of a 170-pound division. While he might have his moments, Buckley should rack up damage and control the cage. That's usually what gets er' done on these decision bets.
