UFC 239: Rockhold vs Blachowicz Preview and Pick

Christian Pina is a professional sports bettor and host of InsideVegas on the Sports Gambling Podcast Network as well as a contributor for CP Sports. He has provided a breakdown and pick for UFC 239.

Luke Rockhold (-230) Vs Jan Blachowicz (+180)

Luke Rockhold (16-4) starts the second chapter of his UFC career, trying his hand at 205 pounds after no longer being able to comfortably make the 185-pound mark. As a middleweight, Rockhold was one of the most dangerous fighters in the world and even captured the lightweight championship after a 5-0 start to his UFC career.

Since then, it’s been an up-and-down run for Rockhold after losing his title to Michael Bisping. While he was able to defeat David Branch, that outcome was much more an indictment of Branch, who is inside the Octagon at this stage of his career for a paycheck and visibly quit the fight. Rockhold lost to Yoel Romero after that bout.

Jan Blachowicz (23-8) is someone who is always around the title picture but when the lights are at their brightest, against the best competition, he falters. The good news for him is that this division is paper-thin and it won’t take much for him to be in title contention again. He has the best pure boxing in the division at this point thanks to his new jab, and while he still needs to improve his takedown defense, he’s making strides with every fight.

Stylistically with these two fighters, Blachowicz’s boxing is unquestionably better than Rockhold’s, but his combos are formed out of pressure and walking forward. Blachowicz showed against Thiago Santos how open he can leave himself, which explains why Santos is fighting Jon Jones for the title and Blachowicz is getting this fight with Rockhold.

The key to this bout will be whether Blachowicz plays a more point fighting style after his vicious knockout loss to Santos or if he still trusts himself enough to let his hands fly. The other storyline to follow will be Rockhold’s ground game, specifically from top control. Rockhold is just so much better on the ground that eventually he should get top position and win a comfortable decision or stoppage from there.