The UFC is returning to another sold-out crowd as the Octagon will be set up at Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona, on June 12. A pair of rematch title fights will headline UFC 263 as Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno battle for the flyweight strap before Israel Adesanya defends his middleweight belt against Marvin Vettori.
Taking a look at the main event and the Adesanya vs Vettori odds, it is the reigning champion who is favored. We have all the UFC 263 odds along with predictions below.
Adesanya returns to the cage for the first time since suffering his first pro defeat. The middleweight champ jumped up a weight division to challenge for the light heavyweight title but lost via decision and now comes back to his rightful weight class.
Vettori has won five in a row since his narrow split-decision defeat to Adesanya in April 2018. This is his longest winning streak inside the Octagon.
UFC 263 Odds: Adesanya vs Vettori
Online sportsbook [Sportsbook not available for your region] has released the UFC 263 odds with Israel Adesanya listed as the -265 chalk and Marvin Vettori coming back as the +210 underdog. This means you would have to wager $265 to profit $100 on an Adesanya victory while a $100 bet on a Vettori win would profit you $210.
Looking at the UFC 263 odds for Adesanya vs Vettori, our sports betting calculator tells us that Adesanya’s odds of -265 represent an implied win probability of 72.60 percent while Vettori’s odds of +210 have an implied win probability of 32.26 percent.
The largest favorite in the UFC 263 odds is in the welterweight main card fight with Leon Edwards (-525) favored over Nate Diaz (+365).
The tightest UFC 263 betting line odds come in the featherweight prelim fight between Chase Hooper (-105) and Steven Peterson (-115).
UFC 263 Betting Odds & Fight Card
- Main Card
- Middleweight Championship – Israel Adesanya (-265) vs Marvin Vettori (+210)
- Flyweight Championship – Deiveson Figueiredo (-230) vs Brandon Moreno (+185)
- Welterweight – Leon Edwards (-525) vs Nate Diaz (+365)
- Welterweight – Demian Maia (+175) vs Belal Muhammad (-225)
- Light Heavyweight – Paul Craig (+250) vs Jamahal Hill (-325)
- Prelims
- Lightweight – Drew Dober (-140) vs Brad Riddell (+115)
- Light Heavyweight – Eryk Anders (-150) vs Darren Stewart (+125)
- Women’s Flyweight – Lauren Murphy (+125) vs Joanne Calderwood (-150)
- Featherweight – Movsar Evloev (-240) vs Hakeem Dawodu (+290)
- Women’s Bantamweight – Pannie Kianzad (-200) vs Alexis Davis (+160)
- Featherweight – Chase Hooper (-105) vs Steven Peterson (-115)
- Lightweight – Fares Ziam (-140) vs Luigi Vendramini (+115)
- Heavyweight – Carlos Felipe (-185) vs Jake Collier (+150)
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New to betting on the fights? Check out our MMA fight analysis and How to Bet on the UFC guide to help you get in the action. Also, be sure to keep an eye on our UFC odds page for the latest up-to-date UFC 263 betting lines.
- Date/Time: June 12, 6 p.m. ET
- Location: Glendale, Arizona
- Arena: Gila River Arena
- Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV
Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori 2 Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | -265 |
| Marvin Vettori | +210 |
Prior to his loss at light heavyweight, Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya (-265) had a perfect 20-0 record at middleweight. Looking to slap another loss on his record is the man who nearly did so before: Marvin “The Italian Dream” Vettori (+210) has revenge on his mind after losing to Izzy in 2018.
- Adesanya sports a 20-1 record and 15 of his victories have been knockouts, while his lone defeat was by decision.
- The Last Stylebender is a fantastic kickboxer with pinpoint accuracy and remarkable defensive reflexes. He averages 3.95 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.63. He has outstruck every opponent in the Octagon with the exception of Jan Blachowicz.
- Furthering Adesanya’s strengths, he’s tall and long for the middleweight division at six-foot-four with an 80-inch reach. That said, he likes space to work, using that length and his exceptional kicks.
- The biggest question about Izzy was how his grappling would hold up and, against Blachowicz, a much bigger man, he was taken down three times and held there. It may not be the same story against middleweights.
- Adesanya’s last three fights were Yoel Romero (win – unanimous decision), Paulo Costa (win – knockout) and Jan Blachowicz (loss – unanimous decision).
- Vettori made his pro debut when he was just 18 and debuted in the UFC four years later. While Adesanya had a perfect record coming up the ranks, Vettori had some losses and holds a 17-4-1 record. Eleven of his wins have been stoppages with two knockouts and nine submissions, while each of his losses has come by decision.
- The Italian Dream is an aggressive fighter, both in and out of the cage, having a few incidents at the hotel with his opponents, especially if they’ve pulled out of a fight against him. He marches forward, disrespecting his foes’ power while looking to land his shots or go for a takedown.
- Marvin has outstruck eight of his 10 UFC opponents; Adesanya is one of the two to outstrike him. He averages 4.14 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.90.
- Striking isn’t Vettori’s go-to, though, as he averages 2.22 takedowns per 15 minutes and landed a middleweight-record 11 takedowns in his last outing vs Kevin Holland. He also took down Adesanya twice in their fight.
- Vettori’s last three fights were Karl Roberson (win – submission), Jack Hermansson (win – unanimous decision) and Kevin Holland (win – unanimous decision).
If you want to see more on this fight, check out my Adesanya vs Vettori 2 odds analysis article.
Prediction: Marvin Vettori (+210) via decision
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno 2 Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Deiveson Figueiredo | -230 |
| Brandon Moreno | +185 |
Deiveson “Deus Da Guerra” Figueiredo (-230) and Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno (+185) closed out 2020 at UFC 256 with a fight of the year candidate that resulted in a majority draw. That result ended a five-fight winning streak for the champ, Figueiredo, and a three-fight streak for the challenger, Moreno.
- The draw was just the second blemish on Figueiredo’s record as he is 20-1-1 and 17 of his wins have been stoppages (nine knockout, eight submissions). His lone defeat was a decision loss.
- Deus Da Guerra is an intimidating flyweight, stalking his opponents and cutting off the cage effectively while looking to land his heavy hands.
- He can employ this type of approach with few worries because if he gets taken down, he has strong submission skills while his power is devastating on the feet.
- A question about Figueiredo given his approach was his conditioning, which I think was answered in the draw against Moreno. It was a grueling fight and he was up to the task, and was even hospitalized the night before because he was sick. People may forget that had Figueiredo not had a point deducted due to a groin shot, he would have won the fight.
- Figueiredo’s last three fights were Joseph Benavidez (win – submission), Alex Perez (win – submission) and Brandon Moreno (majority draw).
- Moreno stumbled to begin his career, going 3-3, and at the start of his UFC career when he was 4-2-1. Overall, he sports an 18-5 record with 13 wins by stoppage (three knockouts, 10 submissions) while all five of his losses have been decisions.
- The Assassin Baby is predominantly a grappler, averaging 2.01 takedowns per 15 minutes, and brought the champ down four times in their encounter. However, his striking has continually improved through his career.
- The challenger has great conditioning. He absorbed Figueiredo’s best shots and wore it well, continuing to move forward, and he hurt the champ several times with his crisp combinations and body work.
- Moreno’s last three fights were Jussier Formiga (win – unanimous decision), Brandon Royval (win – knockout) and Deiveson Figueiredo (majority draw).
If you want to see more on this fight, check out my Figueiredo vs Moreno 2 odds analysis article.
Prediction: Deiveson Figueiredo (-230) via knockout
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Leon Edwards vs Nate Diaz Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Leon Edwards | -525 |
| Nate Diaz | +365 |
The first-ever non-main event, non-title five-round fight will feature these two welterweight contenders. Leon “Rocky” Edwards (-525) is unbeaten over his last nine fights dating back to 2016 – his last loss came against current champion Kamaru Usman. We once again get to be entertained by Nate Diaz (+365), who returns for the first time in a year and a half after getting stopped by Jorge Masvidal in November 2019.
- Edwards is coming off a no contest but his record still stands at 18-3 with that no contest. Half of his victories have been stoppages (six knockouts, three submissions) while he’s never been finished himself.
- Rocky is a very well-rounded fighter with a strong fight IQ. He is a true mixed martial artist, having the ability to stand and have a kickboxing match or get into a grappling exchange. His output isn’t crazy, though, averaging 2.56 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.03. He also averages 1.35 takedowns per 15 minutes.
- The southpaw is calculated and sets plenty of traps for his opponents, while his conditioning has never been an issue.
- Edwards’ last three fights were Gunnar Nelson (win – split decision), Rafael dos Anjos (win – unanimous decision) and Belal Muhammad (no contest).
- A veteran of the Octagon since his Ultimate Fighter 5 victory in 2007, this is Diaz’s 26th fight in the UFC. He sports a 20-12 record overall with 16 wins by stoppage (five knockouts, 11 submissions). He’s only been finished three times, twice by knockout and once by submission.
- Don’t look for Diaz to shoot for many takedowns, despite his high-level submission skills. He averages just 1.19 takedowns per 15 minutes and succeeds on just 30 percent of his attempts.
- Instead, Diaz likes to get into a brawl. He walks forward with his hands by his side, showboating as he mean-mugs and talks trash. Diaz will slap his opponents and flip them off, and he has conditioning for days. If his foes start to tire, he picks it up and starts putting combinations together.
- A big issue for Diaz recently is that his style of fighting has left him with a lot of scar tissue that often opens up early in a fight. That led to his doctor’s stoppage loss to Masvidal in 2019.
- Diaz’s last three fights were Conor McGregor (loss – majority decision), Anthony Pettis (win – unanimous decision) and Jorge Masvidal (loss – knockout).
Prediction: Leon Edwards (-525) via knockout
Demian Maia vs Belal Muhammad Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Demian Maia | +175 |
| Belal Muhammad | -225 |
For Demian Maia (-225), this is the last fight on his contract and is likely to be his retirement fight. He will have to dig deep if he wants to end on a high note against the streaking Belal “Remember the Name” Muhammad (+175), who is unbeaten in his last five.
- Maia made his UFC debut in 2007 at UFC 77 and this is his 33rd fight in the promotion. Over his UFC career, he fought once for the middleweight belt and once for the welterweight strap. He carries a 28-10 record with 17 wins by finish (three knockouts, 14 submissions). His two stoppage losses were knockouts.
- He is first and foremost a grappler with extremely good submission skills, notably his rear naked choke. His striking, though, is rather rudimentary as he throws big overhand punches either to land heavily or close distance to get in a grappling exchange.
- Maia averages just 1.82 significant strikes per minute while also securing 2.55 takedowns per 15 minutes. If he’s unable to get the fight to the canvas, he tends to struggle a lot.
- Maia’s last three fights were Anthony Rocco Martin (win – majority decision), Ben Askren (win – submission) and Gilbert Burns (loss – knockout).
- Muhammad stumbled at the beginning of his UFC career, dropping two of his first three, but since then has gone 8-1 with one no contest. He is 18-3 overall with each of his losses coming in the UFC (one by knockout). Only five of his wins are stoppages (four knockouts, one submission).
- He is a well-rounded fighter and mixes up his attack well. He averages 4.75 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.02. Remember the Name also secures 1.97 takedowns per 15 minutes.
- Muhammad backs his opponents up with forward pressure, not afraid of getting into a war. But at times he relies too much on head shots and would benefit from going to the body more.
- Muhammad’s last three fights were Lyman Good (win – unanimous decision), Dhiego Lima (win – unanimous decision) and Leon Edwards (no contest).
Prediction: Belal Muhammad (-225) via decision
Paul Craig vs Jamahal Hill Odds & Prediction
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Paul Craig | +250 |
| Jamahal Hill | -325 |
Jamahal “Sweet Dreams” Hill (-325) will open the main card and in doing so lays his perfect 8-0 record on the line. Looking to snap that undefeated record is Paul “Bearjew” Craig (+250), who is unbeaten over his last four.
- Each of Craig’s four pro losses have come in the UFC. Overall, he sits at 14-4-1 with only the draw being a fight that went the distance. Among his 14 wins, he has two knockouts and 12 submissions, while his four losses include three knockouts and one submission.
- Bearjew will use big explosive movements like spinning kicks and big punches to either damage his foe or get close for a takedown. Evident in all the submissions on his record, he wants the fight on the floor.
- He averages 2.11 takedowns per 15 minutes and when he gets the fight there, he is constantly searching for a submission. However, his submission defense and striking defense have let him down in the past.
- Craig’s last three fights were Shogun Rua (split draw), Gadzhimurad Antigulov (win – submission) and Shogun Rua (win – knockout).
- Hill earned a contract on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series and has continued his winning ways by going 2-0 with a no contest in three UFC bouts. His no contest was a win but he tested positive for marijuana metabolites and the victory was overturned.
- The southpaw is crisp and accurate with a high output of 7.90 significant strikes per minute. It’s also clear that he enjoys fighting, often wearing a big smile on his face inside the Octagon. Half of his eight pro wins have been stoppages, all by knockout.
- Sweet Dreams is constantly trying out different techniques to see what works and what doesn’t and then will capitalize when he learns an opponent’s tendency. He also does a good job going on the attack when he knows he has hurt his foe.
- Hill’s last three fights were Darko Stosic (win – unanimous decision), Klidson Abreu (no contest) and Ovince St. Preux (win – knockout).
Prediction: Jamahal Hill (-325) via knockout
UFC 263 Best Bets
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Middleweight Championship – Marvin Vettori | +210 |
| Flyweight Championship – Deiveson Figueiredo | -230 |
| Welterweight – Leon Edwards | -525 |
| Welterweight – Belal Muhammad | -225 |
| Light Heavyweight – Jamahal Hill | -325 |
