Zhang Weili is back in action at UFC 312, this time defending her strawweight belt against long-awaited challenger Tatiana Suarez. The Weili vs Suarez odds give the champ a moderate edge.
Weili is a -170 favorite vs Suarez, the +140 underdog. Weili put on an excellent performance at UFC 300 and will now meet Suarez, who has secured two submission wins since returning from a four-year injury layoff.
This fight goes down Feb. 8 in Sydney, Australia.
Zhang Weili vs Tatiana Suarez Betting Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Weili Zhang | -170 |
| Tatiana Suarez | +140 |
Odds as of Dec. 11
Our odds calculator determined Weili's -170 odds give her a 62.96% implied chance of winning, and a $100 bet pays out $158.82. Suarez's +140 odds give her a 41.67% implied chance, and a $100 bet pays out $240.
How to Bet Suarez
A world-championship wrestler and newly awarded Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Suarez will want this fight on the mat. She has returned to the UFC with incredible force, using her massive frame and strength to secure two guillotine stoppages. Weili is strong, too, but she'll be at a three-inch reach disadvantage vs Suarez.
This fight will be about Suarez managing her distance. She can kick with force and strike a bit but probably loses a stand-up fight to Weili. She needs to claim a dominant position or get the champ going backward.
While a submission bet is enticing, I'd prefer to back Suarez as the underdog. Weili's last two fights have gone the full 25 minutes, and the China native has only been stopped once in her career.
How To Bet Weili
Suarez has never lost, but she's also never competed for a full five rounds, and that's an element I'm counting on as I pick Weili to win this fight. It's hard to train your cardio when you're not healthy, and Suarez will be off 18 months before UFC 312. Not good.
Suarez will definitely pin Weili on the ground. The champion's grappling is much better these days, and she has used it as a blanket strategy to defeat strikers like Amanda Lemos and Yan Xiaonan. She won't outdo Suarez, but she will survive a few scrambles. Watch for Weili to fend off the early grappling exchanges when both fighters are dry.
As the fight goes on, the odds swing heavily in Weili's favor. Her cardio is incredible, and she's a stocky strawweight, meaning Suarez can't just ragdoll her the whole time. As I look into the crystal ball, I'm fuzzy on the finer details (maybe a Weili knockdown and a nearly successful sub by Suarez) but I believe Weili wins by decision.
Zhang Weili vs Tatiana Suarez Pick
The stylistic differences make Suarez one of Weili's toughest tests ever. But it's hard to teach championship mettle, and I'll count on the champ defending her belt and continuing her case for the UFC Hall of Fame.
