UFC 235: Tyron Woodley vs Kamaru Usman Odds Analysis

Co-headlining UFC 235: Jones vs Smith at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on March 2 will be Tyron “The Chosen One” Woodley defending his welterweight championship against Kamaru “The Nigerian Nightmare” Usman. This is the fifth title defense for the champion, Woodley, and he is a -175 favorite with the challenger, Usman, coming back at +145.

Odds Analysis

This is the first time that Usman has been an underdog from the odds we have dating back to his December 19, 2015, fight with Leon Edwards, a span of eight fights. The Nigerian Nightmare has closed as an average favorite of -441 and he has backed those odds up by being undefeated in the Octagon and is 14-1 in his career overall.

Meanwhile, oddsmakers haven’t shown much love for The Chosen One as he was a very slight underdog in his last fight (-105 to Darren Till -118), and has been a dog in four of his last five fights overall. The champ went 4-0-1 in those five fights with the draw being a majority decision in his first fight vs Stephen Thompson when he was a +156 dog. This is the sixth-highest odds Woodley has had inside the UFC at -160 and I think that is tremendous value for an underrated fighter.

Who will win this fight?

Usman is a high-level wrestler who is averaging 4.47 takedowns per 15 minutes and when the fight hits the mat, he rains down a ferocious ground and pound. However, Woodley is extremely strong and he defends 94 percent of takedown attempts. Only current Bellator welterweight champion Rory MacDonald has ever managed to take him down – and only once, in their UFC 174 bout in 2014.

The real difference maker in this fight is the striking as The Nigerian Nightmare has just one knockout victory in his UFC career and he is at a massive disadvantage to The Chosen One, who has spectacular knockout power, with five of his 10 Octagon wins coming in that manner. I think if Usman can’t find a way to bring the champ to the mat, the momentum swings heavily in favor of Woodley.