The Atlanta Hawks visit the first-place Toronto Raptors tonight in a game where the spread opened at 15.5 points – the biggest underdog position this season for Atlanta and the biggest favorite position this season for the Raptors. Early betting action has moved the line to 14.5 and it remains to be seen where it will be at tipoff. The total is at 228.5.
- The Hawks are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games vs the Raptors (avg. losing margin: 18.8).
- The total has gone OVER in the Raptors’ last four games (avg. combined score: 233.8).
- The Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a double-digit underdog.
Toronto is 3-6 ATS as a Double-Digit Favorite
Toronto is the second-worst favorite ATS bet in the NBA after the Golden State Warriors, covering the spread in just 13 of 33 games when laying points. Additionally, when playing “inferior” teams like the Hawks and laying more than 9.5 points, the Raptors are 3-6 ATS.
This season as a double-digit underdog, the Hawks are 0-12 SU and 5-7 ATS. Tonight also potentially marks the last time that Atlanta forward Vince Carter plays in Toronto. While he’s not the same Vince Carter that Raptors fans remember, he did have 14 points against the Raps on November 21 – double his season average.
Raptors Finally Get Lowry and Leonard On the Floor Together
With both Kyle Lowry and Kawhi Leonard in and out of the lineup over the last couple of weeks (and all season for Kawhi, really), it’s been a while since Toronto has had its two best players on the floor at the same time.
With just one of them in the lineup recently, the Raptors have played to the OVER in four consecutive games with an average combined score of 233.8. With Atlanta coming in with the No. 30 scoring defense and No. 24 field-goal defense, it could be open season for the Raptors’ offense.
My Bet for Tonight
I’m going to bet OVER 228.5 for this game. The Raptors like to run with the bench when they build big leads and this often leads to teams cutting the deficit, so I’m not confident that they’ll cover such a big spread.
I am confident that Toronto will score plenty of points on home court where the O/U is 25-17 this season. In addition, the Raptors have surrendered 115.3 points per game in their last three games while scoring 117.
