The Boston Celtics have been a tough team to win money on and have been a good fade overall in the past couple of weeks, but did you know that they’ve also been a bad bet on back-to-backs all year? Boston heads to Brooklyn tonight as a -1.5-point road favorite against a Brooklyn team that has been hot and cold at home all season. The total opened at 228.5.
Standout Stats
- Boston is 3-8-1 ATS on the second game of a back-to-back this season. Interestingly, the UNDER has hit in three straight and in four of the last five in this spot.
- The Celtics are just 4-5 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games. They won but did not cover last night vs the Pacers.
- The home team has won each of the three games between these two teams this season. Brooklyn has been the underdog in all three and covered nine points at TD Garden on January 28, losing 112-104.
- These teams are very close in most statistical categories since the all-star break. The Celtics have a -1.5 point differential during that span, while the Nets are at -0.5. They are within two percentage points of each other in field goal percentage, three-point shooting and free throws.
- Defensively, teams are shooting 45 percent vs Boston, 45.6 percent vs Brooklyn. Teams are shooting 34 percent from outside vs Brooklyn, 34.4 percent vs Boston. Opponents are getting 46.4 rebounds vs Brooklyn, 45.8 rebounds vs Boston.
- Both teams are getting 33.8 percent of their points from three-pointers this year. However, Brooklyn has been more reliant on this since the break than Boston: 34.6 percent vs 30.4 percent.
My Best Bet for Celtics vs Nets
Nets +1.5
I’m going to back the Nets in what I expect to be a close game. It could also be a complete stay away as there’s no definitive evidence to either side.
Where I see the edge lying is in Boston’s back-to-back and current ATS record combined with the slight edge that Brooklyn has in three-point shooting vs Boston’s three-point defense. Brooklyn has been slightly above their season average from beyond lately, shooting 36.2 percent in their last three games.
