Two of the top three defenses in the NBA hook up tonight in Denver as the Boston Celtics visit the Nuggets at the Pepsi Center. Boston is the only team in the Association allowing less than 100 points per game (99.8) while Denver has surrendered just 101.9 points per game. Accordingly, the total opened on the lower side at 207 while the Nuggets are 2.5-point favorites on their home floor.
- Boston has the 29th-ranked field-goal percentage in the NBA (42.2%).
- The Nuggets are 12-0 SU in their last 12 games at home (avg. winning margin: 10.17).
- The Celtics are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.
Celtics vs Nuggets Game Center
Celtics Taking a Different Approach
In a league that sees a lot of teams run offenses based on the run-and-gun approach, the Boston Celtics are winning their games in a novel way – with defense. The Celtics are 6-3 SU on the year despite having the league’s 28th-ranked scoring offense and 29th-ranked field-goal percentage.
Kyrie Irving is the team’s leading scorer with 17.9 points per game. For context, that puts him in a tie for 44th in the league with JJ Redick, who comes off the bench for the Sixers. Boston held the high-powered Bucks to 113 points on Thursday. That’s the fewest number of points scored by Milwaukee’s No. 2-ranked offense this season and it’s also the most points allowed by the Celtics.
Nuggets Unbeaten at Home
There’s no place like home, especially for the Denver Nuggets, who are on a winning streak of 12 games at the Pepsi Center with a double-digit average winning margin in those games. It’s looking decent for that trend to continue tonight as the Celtics are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games as the underdog.
Gary Harris is averaging 21.4 points per game at home to lead the way for Denver. The Nuggets’ 47.5 percent mark from the floor at home is eighth in the league as Denver is scoring three more points per game at home than on the road. In contrast, the Celtics are shooting just 41.5 percent for 103 points per game away from TD Garden.
My Pick for Tonight
I think the oddsmakers got it right by setting the total at 207 for this game. If I had to choose a totals bet, I think I’d still take the UNDER, but I’m going to shy away from betting on the total in this game.
I’m going to take the Nuggets -2.5 as they continue their dominance on home court. The Celtics will get a taste of their own medicine as they come up against a team as committed to defending its own basket as they are, while the difference is that Denver has still found a way to score points while playing stellar defensive ball.
