Pelicans Look to Avoid 4th Straight Loss when Hosting Celtics

The New Orleans Pelicans are hoping a return back to the Bayou will provide a spark when they host the Boston Celtics. The Pellies dropped all three of their road games on their recent trip and will be looking forward to returning to the Smoothie King Center where they’re 8-1 SU in nine games this season. The Celtics, on the other hand, have been a bit of a mess on the road with a 5-7 SU and 3-9 ATS record in 12 away games and will be without starting SF Jaylen Brown for this contest.

The Pelicans opened as slight 1.5-point underdogs with a total of 224.5.

Celtics vs Pelicans Game Center

Pelicans Have Been Lights-Out at Smoothie King Center

With an 8-1 record at home this season, you would think the Pelicans would be rolling in the Western Conference as they’re one of two teams (Clippers) with only one home loss so far. But the Pellies’ record is 10-10 SU in 20 games this year – they’re an ugly 2-9 SU on the road and have gone 0-4 SU in four games when Anthony Davis doesn’t suit up. Davis sat out the last game vs the Wizards and while he is expected to be back on the court, he may not be 100 percent due to a hip strain.

Three-point shooting is the biggest discrepancy for the Pelicans when it comes to home/road splits this season as they’re shooting 36 percent from deep when playing at home compared to only 32 percent on the road. Look at the scoring in their last three home games compared to their last three road games:

As you can see, the Pelicans bring the hammer down in New Orleans and have a different burst to their step. With the line so low, I would feel confident in endorsing a Pelicans spread bet.

Celtics Have Been Burning Spread Bettors on the Road

Dropping four of their last five games, Boston has the look of a team searching for answers. With 10 players all feeling like they’re NBA starters, the biggest challenge for the Celtics has been cohesion and chemistry, which has led them to be ranked 24th in points scored per game.

That mark is a travesty when you consider the wealth of offensive talent they have on that squad and it has led to them coming up short in road games. The Celtics are an ugly 5-7 SU and 3-9 ATS in 12 away games this season, including indefensible losses to the Mavericks and Hornets.

The one facet where Boston has still been strong is defensively as the Celtics rank fourth in points allowed per game at 104.2 and are the best squad at defending the three by holding the opposition to 31.8 percent from downtown. With the way the Pelicans have been shooting the ball, that type of performance from the Celtics will be needed to take down the Pellies and their run-and-gun style.

I’ll likely be fading the Celtics in this matchup until they can show they can consistently win on the road because for a team that was pegged to win the Eastern Conference, they look lost early this season and I doubt they can figure it out before tonight’s game.

The OVER May be a Decent Play

The total opened at 224.5 and I would recommend taking an OVER if you plan to wager on the total. The OVER has hit in five of the Pelicans’ last six games with an average combined score of 243.5. While the Celtics may not be everyone’s cup of tea to take an OVER with that total, it’s worth noting that the average combined score of their last four games is 221.7 against four teams that are not exactly offensive juggernauts (Knicks, Mavericks, Hawks and Hornets).

My Pick Is…

To take the Pelicans to cover the spread and win since Anthony Davis is playing. I think he’ll be a matchup nightmare for Al Horford and Aron Baynes and will allow guards like Jrue Holiday and E’Twaun Moore to run free. I'm also iffy on taking the Celtics spread as they’re 3-9 ATS in 12 road games and they were favored in eight of those games.