Celtics vs Warriors Picks & Odds: Golden State Looks To Stay Undefeated At Home

The Golden State Warriors (65-33 SU, 50-44-4 ATS) welcome the Boston Celtics (63-37, 55-43-2) to Chase Center for Game 1 of the NBA Finals on Thursday as a small home favorite. Golden State will look to earn its fourth championship since 2015, while Boston is playing in its first final since 2010. Find out which team will take an early series lead in our Celtics vs Warriors prediction. 

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Also, ahead of Game 1, take a look at who Paulo Antunes is picking to grab the series lead.

Celtics vs Warriors Odds & Analysis

Sportsbook Odds 

The Warriors opened as a 2.5-point favorite for Game 1 with the total set at 210.5 points. The UNDER is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings between the teams and 7-0 in the last seven meetings at Chase Center. Boston has won six of the last seven meetings against Golden State, suggesting the visitors may be a wise pick for your Celtics vs Warriors prediction.

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Celtics Defense Has Been The Key Through Playoffs

Boston sealed a tightly contested Game 7 win over the Miami Heat on Sunday to clinch its first NBA Finals appearance in over a decade. The Celtics’ top trio of Jayson Tatum (26 points, 10 rebounds), Jaylen Brown (24 points) and Marcus Smart (24 points) all came to play in Game 7 as they carried their team to a 100-96 win over a Heat squad led by a seemingly unstoppable Jimmy Butler.

The Celtics come into this series with the second-best defense among all teams in the postseason, allowing just 101 points per game. Boston locked down tremendously against Miami, giving up a mere 90 points per contest through its four wins in the series.

Smart (ankle) and Sam Hauser (shoulder) are probable while Robert Williams (knee) is questionable.

Thompson Helps Warriors Down Mavs In Game 5

After a slight hiccup in Game 4, the Warriors got back into the win column last Thursday to defeat the Dallas Mavericks in five games and advance to their first NBA Finals since 2019. Klay Thompson matched his 2022 postseason high with 32 points while five other Warriors finished in double digits in a 120-110 victory.

Thompson has been up-and-down since his return from injury earlier this season, but he’s up to 19.8 points per game in these playoffs – a shade higher than his career postseason average of 19.3. His ability to hit shots will be a huge factor in this series as the Warriors look to outscore a defense-first Celtics squad.

Andre Iguodala (neck), Otto Porter Jr. (foot) and Gary Payton II (elbow) are questionable for Game 1.

Celtics vs Warriors Pick & Insights

Celtics: Keys To Cover

Boston has had a consistent formula to win in these playoffs: get scoring from their top two or three guys and shut down the opposition. The latter will be easier said than done against a gifted Golden State squad – particularly Stephen Curry – but if the Celtics can limit the Warriors’ secondary scorers, they’ll be in prime position for a Game 1 win.

Warriors: Keys To Cover

The Warriors come into Game 1 having won nine straight home games in the postseason and 12 straight dating back to the regular season. Golden State is averaging 118 points per contest over its nine-game run and will look to overpower Boston’s stingy defense. With numerous weapons like Curry, Thompson, Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins, it may just be possible.

NBA Computer Pick: Celtics +3.5

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