The NBA playoffs don’t start for another week but tonight’s matchup between the Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers will most certainly have a postseason feel. The two teams have identical records and the Sportsbook will likely get home court for their anticipated first-round playoff series. The Pacers have gone 7-2 SU in nine home games since the all-star break and only lost by two points to the C’s when they played at TD Garden just over a week ago.
The Pacers opened as 1.5-point favorites with a total of 214.
STANDOUT STATS
- The Celtics have been a much better team at home than on the road this season, going 19-20 SU and 16-21-2 ATS in 39 games away from TD Garden. But they’ve also been a terrible spread bet since the all-star break at 7-13-1 ATS in 21 games. They’re allowing teams to score 112.8 points per game while ranking 22nd in opponent field-goal percentage.
- The Celtics have been a hit-or-miss team that can be extremely frustrating for bettors. Even though they’ve won four of their last five games, they’ve gone 2-3 ATS and barely beat Indiana at home just under a week ago and lost by one point when they faced the Pacers in November, albeit with very different rosters. It’s also worth noting that the Celtics are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games with Jaylen Brown out of the lineup.
- Since the all-star break, the Pacers’ defense has still been strong by limiting teams to 107.5 points per game (ranked fourth) while ranking in the top five in shots allowed. Their offense has been efficient in that even though they rank 27th in points scored per game, they rank sixth in field-goal percentage and fourth in three-point percentage despite taking the fewest number of shots.
- Although the Pacers have gone 9-12 SU and 10-11 ATS in 21 games since the all-star break, they’ve been a great home bet in that stretch by going 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS with notable wins over the Thunder, Pistons, Nuggets and Timberwolves. In those home games, they have a +8.1 point differential and are averaging 114.1 points per game.
- The OVER has hit in five of the Celtics’ last seven road games (avg. combined score: 228.2) while the OVER has also hit in the last two games in this matchup (avg. combined score: 234.5).
My ‘Best’ Bet for Celtics vs Pacers
Celtics Moneyline
For anyone who has read my work or followed me on Twitter, I have an insanely awful record picking Celtics games. For some reason, when I pick them to lose, they win. When I pick the total to go UNDER, it goes OVER. I am ice-cold when trying to cap their games and I have no problem being transparent about it. I’m mainly telling you this so you know what you’re getting into.
However, due to this likely having a playoff atmosphere with home court on the line in the postseason, I can’t help but side with the better team … on paper. Yes, the Celtics are the better team on paper but the Pacers have completely reinvented themselves since Victor Oladipo got hurt and have been very efficient shooting the basketball. I still think the Celtics win this game outright but if you’re smart, you may want to fade me on this one.
