A rematch from two days ago will be on display with the Boston Celtics heading to South Beach to face the Miami Heat tonight. The Celtics won the last game but failed to cover the spread after allowing a late three-pointer and haven’t covered in their last five games vs the Heat. Miami has been a strong cover bet on the road this season but has been hit-or-miss at American Airlines Arena at 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 home games.
The Celtics opened as 1.5-point favorites with a total of 212.5.
STANDOUT STATS
- The Celtics have been a much better team at home than on the road this season, going 18-20 SU and 15-21-2 ATS in 38 games away from TD Garden. But they’ve also been a terrible spread bet since the all-star break at 6-13-1 ATS in 20 games. They’re allowing teams to score 112.8 points per game while ranking 22nd in opponent field-goal percentage.
- When the Celtics visited Miami back in January, they got smoked by 16 points and shot 40 percent from the floor. The Heat have now covered the spread in five straight games against the Celtics, including on Monday when these teams faced each other, thanks to an improbable last-second three-pointer from Bam Adebayo.
- The Heat have been one of the most reliable bets on the road all season but at home is a different story. Miami is 5-10-1 ATS in its last 16 home games and 5-6-1 ATS in 12 games at American Airlines Arena since the all-star break. In 11 home games as an underdog this season, the Heat are 7-4 ATS and won six of those games outright.
- Since the all-star break, Miami’s defense has been one of the best in the NBA. The Heat rank third in points allowed per game (105.6) and fifth in opponent field-goal percentage (43.7) on 85 shots per game (ranked second). However, their offense has not been very efficient since the break as they rank 29th in points scored (107.1) while only hitting 35 percent of their three-point attempts.
- A lot of conflicting trends for totals bettors as the UNDER has hit in the Heat’s last five home games (avg. combined score: 193.6) while the OVER has hit in nine of the Celtics’ last 12 games overall (avg. combined score: 229.1).
My Best Bet for Celtics vs Heat
Heat Moneyline
I’m riding with the Heat to win this game outright because I don’t trust the Celtics to go into Miami and win. The Celtics have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the NBA this season and when these teams faced each other just two days ago, Boston had a 20-point lead for the majority of the game before allowing the Heat to get back into it.
I loathe using motivation as a reason to pick a team but the Heat are only a half-game ahead of Orlando for the 8 seed and will likely treat this like a playoff game with the Celtics locked in as a 4 or 5 seed at this stage of the season. I expect Miami’s defense to come to play and limit the Celtics’ three-point shooting and eke out the win.
