We’d have to go back to the early months of 2018 if we want to find the last time the Milwaukee Bucks dropped two home games in a row. The Bucks dropped the opener vs the Boston Celtics in their second-round series and if history is any indication, Milwaukee will likely even it up as they haven’t lost back-to-back home games since March 2nd, 2018.
The Bucks opened as 7.5-point favorites with a total of 219.5.
STANDOUT STATS
- The Bucks dropped the Sportsbook game of the series and it was due to very uncharacteristic play. Milwaukee shot 34.8 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from behind the arc. The Bucks owned a 48.4 field goal percentage in home games during the regular season and shot 36 percent from three-point range.
- The Celtics have been on a bit of a roll lately and have won six straight road games while covering the spread each time. To be fair, three of those games were vs the Pacers and the Celtics were 21-20 SU and 18-21-2 ATS in road games during the regular season.
- The Celtics’ three-point shooting has been a standout phase of their team in the postseason. Although they rank second-last in three-point attempts amongst active playoff teams, they lead the NBA playoffs in three-point percentage (40.3) and shot 41.9 percent in Game 1 vs the Bucks on 31 attempts.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo was largely ineffective in Game 1 despite him finishing with 22 points. He went 7 for 21 from the field and had a -24 point differential when he was on the court. Kyrie Irving may have been the biggest reason for the Celtics’ victory as he finished with 26 points while shooting 57 percent from the floor.
- If bettors are eying first quarter and first half spreads, here are the trends you need to know for the Bucks and Celtics. The Bucks are 8-3 ATS on the first quarter spread in their last 11 games but 1-3 ATS for the first half spread in their last four games. The Celtics, on the other hand, are 2-7 ATS on the first quarter spread in their last 9 games but 8-3 ATS on the first half spread in their last 11 games.
- The Fiserv Forum has been a haven of victory for the Milwaukee Bucks this season as they owned a +12.1-point differential in home games this season but in the lone game when they hosted the Celtics during the regular season, the Bucks only won by one point. During last year’s playoffs vs the Celtics, the Bucks won each home game in the seven-game series with two of those three wins by double-digits.
- These teams met in the playoffs last season and the OVER hit in five of seven games. However, the average combined score from that series was 204.2 with the highest closing total at 205.5. In Game 1 of this year's series, the final combined score was 202 and the closing total was 223.5 so the UNDER may be a decent wager with today's total hovering around 219.5.
My Best Bet for Celtics vs Bucks
Bucks -7.5
I’m not chalking Game 1 as a fluke because the Celtics are a legit team but I do think the Bucks got caught flat-footed and didn’t appreciate the type of pack-line defense that Boston was going to throw at them. The Bucks were a standout team when playing at home and I expect them to shoot a better percentage while making it difficult for the Celtics to hit three-pointers. I’m not ready to overlook the Celtics or Bucks’ regular season play as there is too much of a sample size that shows that Milwaukee is dominant in certain phases.
