After stunning the Boston Celtics twice on their home floor, the Milwaukee Bucks look to put the nail in the coffin on this second-round series in Game 5 tonight. The Bucks get to return to their stomping grounds, where they had the best home record in the Eastern Conference and own a +13.8-point differential in four games at the Fiserv Forum in the postseason.
The Bucks opened as 9-point favorites with a total of 218.
STANDOUT STATS
- Outside of Game 1 vs the Celtics, the Bucks have been dominant for home games. They’ve got a +13.8-point differential at Fiserv Forum, are shooting 38.1 percent from behind the arc and have a +6.5-rebound differential. Surprisingly, Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging six less points at home compared to the road.
- Game 4 saw the Bucks destroy the Celtics in the paint again. The Bucks outscored the Celtics 66-44 and over the last two games, Milwaukee has outscored Boston 117-68 down low. Giannis Antetokounmpo was a beast in Game 4 and finished 15 for 22 from the field (39 points) with 16 rebounds and four assists.
- Kyrie Irving may be averaging 21.8 points per game in this series but his shooting percentages have been terrible through four games. The all-star guard is shooting 36.9 percent from the field and has only hit six three-pointers on 26 attempts. This is a far cry from his Game 1 performance when he shot 12 for 21 and finished with 26 points.
- The Bucks’ free throw shooting hasn’t burned them yet but it’s troubling when you see they rank last amongst all playoff teams in shooting percentage from the charity stripe. Milwaukee is hitting 73.4 percent of its shots and the Bucks are lucky it didn’t come back to bite them in their last two wins as they’ve missed 19 free throws on 51 attempts.
- A lot of OVER trends coming into this matchup as the OVER has hit in 11 of the Bucks’ last 15 games (avg. combined score: 233.6) and 11 of the last 16 games in this matchup. Through four games in this series, the OVER has hit twice and the average combined score from each game is 220.5. Tonight’s total is 218.
My Best Bet for Celtics vs Bucks
Celtics +9
While I’m out on the Celtics to win this series, I do think this game will play out one of two ways. The Bucks either roll to a 20-point win in a blowout or the Celtics keep it close and lose in the closing minutes. I’m opting for the latter here because I think they’ll bring a desperation that hasn’t been seen since Game 1 and Kyrie Irving can’t shoot any worse that he has. If there is any way that the Celtics can have their bench outscore the Bucks reserves, this game will be close right to the final buzzer.
