The Brooklyn Nets may control their playoff destiny but they'll need to go through the Indiana Pacers in order to get punch their ticket to the postseason. The Nets stole a win in Milwaukee last night and now have to try and win in Indiana, where they haven’t won in their last seven tries. The Nets are also the victim of schedule as they’re on the second game of a back-to-back and are 3-10 SU and ATS in 13 games in that spot for the season.
The Pacers opened as 3.5-point favorites with a total of 219.
STANDOUT STATS
- The Nets have dropped four of their last six games with each loss by double-digits and each of those teams has a winning record. However, they were able to steal an 8-point win in Milwaukee last night even though Giannis Antetokounmpo did not play.
- Since the all-star break, the Nets defense has fallen off a cliff. They’re allowing 119.2 points per road game (ranked 26th) even though they’re holding teams to 45.2 percent from the field. One of the main reasons for them giving up so many points is they’re allowing teams to shoot 95.9 attempts from the field (ranked 28th) while getting outrebounded 52 to 45.
- The Nets have yet to clinch a playoff spot and although the Pacers are locked into the fifth seed, reports say they plan to use their full roster. That’s bad news for Brooklyn, who has not fared well on the second game of a back-to-back. The Nets are 3-10 SU and ATS in 13 games in that spot and when those outings are on the road, they’re 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS.
- Since the all-star break, the Pacers’ defense has still been strong by limiting teams to 107.9 points per game (ranked ninth) while ranking in the top five in shots allowed. Their offense has been efficient in that even though they rank 28th in points scored per game, they rank ninth in field-goal percentage and fourth in three-point percentage despite taking the second-fewest number of shots.
- Although the Pacers have gone 9-13 SU and 10-12 ATS in 21 games since the all-star break, they’ve been a great home bet in that stretch by going 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS with notable wins over the Thunder, Pistons, Nuggets and Timberwolves. In those home games, they have a +5.3-point differential and are averaging 112.4 points per game.
- The OVER has hit in five of the Nets’ last six road games (avg. combined score: 244.2) while the OVER has hit in four of the Pacers’ last five games (avg. combined score: 217.6).
My Best Bet for Nets vs Pacers
OVER 219
I wanted to lean to the Nets to win this one outright but I have a feeling they’ll drop this game to set up a final showdown with the Heat on April 10. I thought the fact that the Nets struggled to put away the Bucks without Giannis was very telling about their defense and giving up 128 points to a team without their best player does not inspire confidence.
However, it does make me feel optimistic about a high-scoring game and if they allowed over 120 points to the Bucks B-Squad, imagine how their defense will fare against the fully-loaded Pacers? Head coach Nate McMillan has already stated that his full roster will play but starters may be limited which means the defense will drop off. The Nets defense hasn’t been good either since the all-star break and the Pacers offense is much better at home than on the road so I’ll side with the OVER.
