The Brooklyn Nets, dating back to their days in New Jersey, haven’t won a game in San Antonio since 2003 and are just 2-21 SU since the turn of the millennium. Since moving to Brooklyn, the Nets are also 0-5-1 ATS as the visitors in this matchup. With that confidence-inducing stat in the back pockets of Nets bettors, the team opens as a 7.5-point underdog tonight with the total at 226.5.
- The Spurs are 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games at home.
- The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Nets’ last 10 games vs the Spurs (avg. combined score: 196.3).
- The Spurs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs teams with winning records.
The Spurs Love That Home Cooking
In addition to the Nets’ historic struggles in San Antonio, the Spurs have been one of the best teams on home court in the NBA this year, compiling a 20-7 SU and 18-9 ATS record at AT&T Center.
The Spurs are the No. 1 three-point shooting team in the Association, but don’t let that stat fool you when it comes to how they get their points. Pop’s squad only earns 27.2 percent of its points on home court from the three-ball (No. 24) while 56.7 percent (No. 6) comes from the old-fashioned two-point field goal.
San Antonio may find an advantage with its inside game tonight as the Nets allow an average of 51 points in the paint on the road, which is 22nd in the league.
Nets Are On a Good Run
Brooklyn is garnering plenty of attention with a recent record of 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games. While things have certainly been going well for the 28-24 Nets, one must note who the wins are coming against. Among the eight wins, they’ve defeated Chicago, New York, Orlando (twice) and Atlanta. However, there are underdog wins against Houston and Boston mixed in.
The Nets will play their fourth game without Spencer Dinwiddie, who is out indefinitely after undergoing ligament surgery on his thumb. In his absence, opposing guards have combined for big nights in the last two games while Brooklyn turns to its bench to replace Dinwiddie’s 17.2 points per game, which was third on the team when he went down.
My Bet For Tonight
To me, the spread is right on the nose here. The Spurs are just 2-6 ATS as a favorite of 7.0 or more this season, accounting for six of their nine home-court spread losses. Meanwhile, the Nets are 9-2 ATS as an underdog of 8 points or less. So, I’m inclined to lean toward the Nets covering that number but I’m not confident in betting it.
I’ve settled on the Spurs scoring more than 116.5 points as my bet for tonight. The Spurs have gone over that number in each of their last four games, against Phoenix, Washington, New Orleans and Philadelphia. With a Spurs’ average of 115.5 points per game this month vs a defense in the bottom half of the league, this is my favorite play in this game.
