The Toronto Raptors will face a squad that has been a thorn in their side for the last three seasons as they tip off tonight vs the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Raps and Cavs both have had some roster turnover that shook the landscape in the NBA with LeBron heading west while Toronto swapped DeMar DeRozan for Kawhi Leonard. Expectations are on different sides of the spectrum for these squads as experts have pegged the Cavaliers as a huge regression candidate while the Raps are one of the favorites to represent the East in the NBA Finals.
Toronto opened as a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 215.5.
- Toronto is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home.
- The Cavaliers are 11-9 ATS in their last 20 games as underdogs of 12 points or more.
- The OVER has hit in 6 of the last 8 games in this matchup.
Cavaliers vs Raptors Game Center
Tough Sledding for the Opposition in the T-Dot
Although the Raptors are facing their biggest nemesis in the Cavaliers tonight, they should feel confident going into this matchup as LeBron is no longer there to crush their spirit. The Raptors were an astounding 37-9 SU in 46 home games last season (including playoffs) and were the only team in the NBA to rank in the top 10 in both points scored and points allowed per game.
Now, they’ve swapped their biggest defensive liability for arguably the best defensive player in the NBA in Kawhi Leonard. Leonard has seemed to fit in perfectly with Nick Nurse’s revised offense thus far in preseason action. His presence along with OG Anunoby and Danny Green will help spearhead a defense that could end up leading the NBA in steals.
The Raptors moneyline may not offer much value tonight and if you’re looking at the spread, that may not be a bettor’s best option either. In those 46 games at home, they finished 24-21-1 ATS which means that while they still win outright, the games can tend to be close. Since it’s so early in the season, taking a double-digit favorite can be difficult to justify so I’m inclined to fade the Raps if forced to take a spread.
Coverin’ Cavs Try to Find Direction Without LeBron
It will be an interesting case study this season to see how the Cavaliers fare without LeBron James. Cleveland finished last year with a record of 62-42 SU but was a historically bad spread bet by going 41-62-1 in those 104 games (including playoffs). This is only the third time in the last 10 games in this matchup that the Cavaliers weren’t favored and they’ve never been a double-digit dog vs Toronto in the franchise’s history (largest ever was +8 in February 2014 when LeBron didn’t play). When an underdog of 12 points or more, the Cavaliers are 11-9 ATS in their last 20 games in that spot.
Cleveland will rely on a heavy dose of Kevin Love, who will also be out to prove that his all-star status is legitimate without the King. Love was a beast in the four-game sweep over the Raps in last year’s playoffs by averaging 20.5 points and 11.5 rebounds and will be likely matched up with Anunoby or Pascal Siakam. Another player who will be eager to prove his worth is rookie Collin Sexton, who was brought in to stabilize a point guard slot that has gotten mixed results with George Hill and Jordan Clarkson. Sexton’s ability to get to the rim and shoot from deep has made him one of the top three contenders for Rookie of the Year.
OVER Bettors Should Pounce on This Game
The total opened at 215.5 and trends point to another OVER in this rivalry. The OVER has hit in six of the last eight games in this matchup with an average combined score of 226.5. The Raptors averaged 112.2 points per game at home last season (ranked fourth) with the OVER hitting in five of their last six in the T-Dot.
My Pick is…
To take the OVER. I’ve seen this movie enough times to know the Raptors start strong at home and will rain down three-point attempts that should see them notch 115 points or more. I think the Cavs are up to the task of keeping pace with the Raps and, while they may fall short of winning, will contribute enough offensively to nail this OVER.
