The Dallas Mavericks are easily one of the NBA’s worst road teams at 6-24 SU, however when they’ve played out-of-conference road games, the Mavs have four of their six road wins and are 8-3 ATS.
Their hosts tonight, the Brooklyn Nets, were one of the top home bets earlier this season, but are just 2-4 ATS in their last six home games and have lost eight of 14 games straight up to Western visitors. The Nets opened as 5-point favorites tonight with the total at 224.5.
Both of these teams are having a hard time right now. Let’s see where the smart money goes tonight.
Standout Stats
- Since the trade deadline, Dallas is 2-7 SU and 2-6-1 ATS. Their losses have been significant, too, as the average losing margin in those seven losses is 15.2 points. This is their first road game in the East since February 2 in Cleveland.
- Dallas won 119-113 in the first meeting between these teams this season on November 21 in Texas. Harrison Barnes had a game-high 28 points – he now plays in Sacramento. Two other starters from that game, DeAndre Jordan and Dennis Smith Jr., are also no longer with the Mavs.
- Brooklyn has lost three straight games to Miami, Charlotte and Washington – all teams below them in the standings and out of the playoff picture at this time. They lost by 29 to the Heat on Saturday.
- In the last 10 games, Brooklyn (-5.2) is No. 26 and Dallas (-9.1) is No. 28 in point differential. Neither of these teams can really be counted on to perform right now. Tonight will be risky no matter which side you take.
- Dallas has the No. 30 scoring offense in the NBA over the last month at 102.9 points per game. Brooklyn is scoring 114.7 points per game (15th) but opponents are lighting them up for 119.9 ppg (26th). Teams are scoring 112.0 points per game vs Dallas during this time frame.
- The Nets are scoring seven fewer points per game since the all-star break and shooting just 43.4 percent from the floor (27th). Luckily for them, the Mavs’ 42.1 percent field-goal rate during that time is the worst in the Association.
- The UNDER has hit in 12 of the last 16 games that Dallas has played in vs the East, including 10 out of 11 road games vs the East this season. Both teams are in the bottom of the league in terms of pace of play since the break – Brooklyn is No. 17 and Dallas is No. 25.
- In 13 Monday games this year, Brooklyn is scoring 105.7 points per game, while the Mavs are scoring 103.6 points per game through 10 Monday games.
My Bet for Mavericks vs Nets
UNDER 224.5
There’s no reason to believe that two struggling teams that are not scoring a ton and are having a hard time shooting the ball will turn it around in a Monday night game against each other.
Because the teams are struggling so much, I am more comfortable taking a side of the total instead of backing one team or the other on the spread. So tonight I will be cheering for both teams to continue sucking and to keep the total low.
I will note, however, that our early data shows the public is betting on the OVER, so I’ll be waiting to see if I can squeeze another point or two out of the total before locking in.
