Doncic, Dallas Look to Push L.A. to the Brink

It’s down to a best-of-three series between the Mavericks and Clippers after Luka Doncic’s buzzer-beater capped Dallas’ comeback overtime victory in Game 4. The last three games have sailed OVER the total by an average of 22 points.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Mavericks drew money Sunday after Sportsbook as 8-point underdogs, closing at +7. Oddsmakers spotted Dallas one fewer point in Game 5 but early action still backed the Mavs, moving them down to +6.5 at most sites as of Monday night. However, the bigger adjustment here is on the total, which opened three points higher than in Game 4. Dallas has gone OVER in seven of its last nine games while LA is 8-2 to the OVER in its last 10.

Dallas News & Notes

A sprained left ankle didn’t stop Doncic from becoming the youngest player in NBA playoff history to post a 40-point triple-double in Game 4, and it’s unlikely to prevent him from suiting up Tuesday either. The 21-year-old prodigy, who is averaging 31.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and 9.8 assists while hitting 43 of 83 field-goal attempts in the series, is listed as probable for Game 5. So is teammate Trey Burke, who is shooting 63 percent from the field over the last three games and averaging 17 points during that span.

There’s far more uncertainty surrounding the status of Kristaps Porzingis, who was scratched less than an hour before Sunday’s contest due to soreness in his right knee. An MRI came back negative, but the Unicorn is still considered a game-time decision. Porzingis averaged 23.7 points, 8.7 rebounds and one block in the first three games of the series.

Los Angeles News & Notes

Doc Rivers tends to get his team’s attention following a loss, and the head coach lit into his players after watching them blow a 21-point lead in Game 4.

“They make a run on us and we cave in. That’s on all of us,” Rivers said during his post-game media availability on Sunday. “We’re supposed to be an elite defensive team. Right now we’re not.” The Clippers are 36-16 ATS in their last 52 games following a defeat, and after Rivers challenged his players, it seems likely we’ll see a fired-up LA squad in Game 5.

They’ll still have their work cut out for them if Patrick Beverley can’t suit up for the fourth straight game. Rivers has suggested that Beverley likely won’t play in Game 5 as he continues to battle a left calf strain, but the veteran hasn’t officially been ruled out. LA is just 12-12 on the year (including 1-2 in this series) when Beverley hasn’t played, compared to 39-13 with him in the lineup.

Beverley’s absence might not be so important if the Clippers were getting anything from Paul George, who’s been so bad in this series that he’s had to block users from commenting on his Instagram posts. The self-described “Playoff P” missed 11 of his 14 field-goal attempts in Game 4 and is shooting a horrific 21.3 percent from the floor through four games, including 4-for-25 from three-point territory.

Betting Pick: Clippers -7

The Mavericks have LA’s full attention now and I like this Clippers squad to respond well after being called out by their coach. In five of LA’s last seven games following a loss, the Clips covered the number by a double-digit margin.