The Los Angeles Lakers return home to the Staples Center after a quick two-game road trip to host the Dallas Mavericks tonight. The Mavs are 0-4 SU in four road games this season and have lost by an average of 10.5 points per game. The Lakers, on the other hand, have been underwhelming at 2-5 SU and ATS in seven games this season but won their last home game vs the Nuggets.
The Lakers opened as 7-point favorites with a total of 234.5.
- The Mavericks are 0-4 SU and 2-2 ATS in four road games this season.
- The Lakers are allowing 122.3 points per game (ranked 29th).
- The OVER has hit in 5 of the Lakers’ 7 games this season.
Mavericks vs Lakers Game Center
Mavs Have Not Been Good Away From Dallas
Expectations for the Mavericks coming into the season were lukewarm as the analysts expected them to be competitive with the additions of Luka Doncic and DeAndre Jordan, but thus far they’ve been below average. The Mavs’ defense is giving up 117 points per game, which ranks 23rd in the NBA, while allowing a league-worst 46 percent shooting from three-point range. Jordan was supposed to stabilize a defensive front for coach Rick Carlisle but he can’t be expected to be chasing shooters out on the perimeter.
Dallas has struggled out of the gate because it can’t stop anyone and its offense isn’t advanced enough to outscore teams because its best scorer is a 19-year-old rookie. Doncic is averaging 20 points per game, which is very impressive at his age, but Harrison Barnes and Wes Matthews are only averaging a combined 31.3 points per game when that figure should be closer to 40. The Mavs are ranked 24th in points per game on the road and have gone 0-4 SU and 2-2 ATS in four away games this season. If the spread gets closer to 10, I’d consider the Mavs but at a 7-point spread, it’s hard to endorse them in this one.
Lakers Seem to Be Invisible on Defense
I had been sounding the alarms about the lack of defense from the Lakers going into the season and through seven games, my prediction has come to fruition. The Lakers are allowing 122.3 points per game (ranked 29th) and allowing teams to shoot 47 percent from the field (ranked 25th). The return of Brandon Ingram and Rajon Rondo to the Lakers lineup helped to spark the offense vs the Timberwolves in their last game but they still gave up 124 points in the loss.
LeBron James is displaying his usual all-around brilliance by averaging 27.6 points, 8.3 assists and 9.1 rebounds but he’s only averaging 24 percent from deep on 5.9 attempts per game. What may be the most incredible thing about this team is it has eight players who are averaging double-digit points, but it doesn’t stop anyone on the other side of the court. So, if you decide to back the Lakers tonight, just know that it likely won’t be because they shut down the Mavericks’ offense. But I do expect Los Angeles to cover the spread for the third time this season.
High Total? No Problem
The total opened at 234.5 and trends are pointing to an OVER. The OVER has hit in five of the Lakers’ seven games this season with an average combined score of 244.2 points per game. The Lakers are one of two teams in the NBA that rank in the top five in scoring (122) and bottom five in points allowed (122.3) so if you don’t feel comfortable taking a spread, you can’t go wrong with an OVER considering the Mavericks are giving up 117 points per game.
My Pick Is…
To take the OVER. I seriously considered fading the Lakers again because that’s my corner but I think 7 points is too close of a spread given how poorly the Mavericks have played on the road this season. I think that neither team plays good defense and this game should top 240.
