One of the league’s top home teams welcomes one of the league’s worst road teams this afternoon in Milwaukee. The Bucks are 20-4 at home while the Dallas Mavericks are a woeful 4-19 on the road. The Bucks have been a good bet as a double-digit favorite, going 9-1 SU and 6-2-2 ATS. They opened as an 11.5-point favorite with the total at 225.
- The Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games at home.
- The Mavericks are 0-23 SU in their last 23 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
- The total has gone UNDER in five of the Bucks’ last seven games (avg. combined score: 222.14).
Mavericks vs Bucks Game Center
Nobody Scores More than Milwaukee on Home Court
The Bucks are the top team in the NBA with a winning percentage of 73.3, just ahead of the Toronto Raptors. A key factor in this success is an average of 120.7 points per game at Fiserv Forum where the Bucks have been outstanding. That’s 3.5 points better than their season average.
An interesting and telling stat about how dominant the Bucks are on home court is that they have the No. 4 field-goal shooting percentage at 48.7. Usually when teams are shooting that well, then their offensive rebounding numbers are lower – simply because there are fewer rebounds to grab. Well, that’s not the case for Milwaukee, the No. 2 offensive rebounding team at home.
It’s the Opposite for Dallas
The Dallas Mavericks are scoring just 107.4 points per game on the road, which is down two points from their overall season average. That number is in large part due to their No. 27 road field-goal percentage and No. 24 road three-point shooting.
The Mavs have lost six of their last eight games, thanks in part to the injury to J.J. Barea and the absence of Dennis Smith Jr. during trade negotiations. However, with no movement on the trade front, Smith is expected to return to the team on Tuesday against the Clippers.
My Pick For Tonight
Normally I do not like to back double-digit favorites but I am going to tonight. Milwaukee has been outstanding at home and has a 6-2-2 ATS record this season when playing as a favorite of 10 points or more.
Sixteen of Milwaukee’s 20 home wins have been by double digits and it also has the No. 1 field-goal defense in the NBA. It’s looking like a big win on home court for the NBA’s best team.
